RSM US Middle Market Business Index Holds Near Recent Highs as Rising Profits and Business Investment Sustain Optimism

Strong capital spending positions businesses for growth in an economy increasingly shaped by AI

CHICAGO, Sept. 22, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI) remained near recent highs, registering at 111.8 for the third quarter, which is a statistically insignificant change from 113.6 in the previous quarter. The reading reflects solid business conditions as rising profits, sustained business investment and recently enacted tax cuts continue to support growth and confidence across the middle market.

"The American middle market is prospering amid a solid economic expansion," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP. "By almost every measure in our survey, executives expressed optimism, with revenues and net earnings pointing to favorable growth conditions ahead. Sustained capital spending remains one of the strongest signals of confidence in the economic outlook as businesses prepare for the next phase of economic and technological change." 

Middle Market Executives Anticipate Continued Growth

The third quarter survey data demonstrate that middle market executives are maintaining a positive outlook, with 68% anticipating both revenues and net earnings to increase over the next six months. Fifty-eight percent of executives also expect the overall economy to improve.

Current quarter results also point to solid underlying conditions: 43% of executives reported that the economy improved, 58% said revenues increased and 59% reported higher net earnings.

Capital Expenditures Position Firms for Evolving Economy

Since the economic shock of the pandemic, middle market businesses have increased capital expenditures to prepare for a rapidly changing economy.

In the third quarter, 57% of respondents reported increased spending on capital expenditures and 65% said they expect to raise those outlays over the next six months.

"This is the most encouraging long-term trend we have observed in the middle market in the survey's decade-long history," Brusuelas said. "Businesses are making productivity-enhancing investments that can position them to compete and grow in an economy increasingly shaped by AI. The sustained increase in capital spending is consistent with the broader buildout of AI infrastructure and the economic transformation it is expected to drive."

Workforce Investment Remains Middle Market Priority

For the second consecutive quarter, more than half (54%) of the survey respondents increased hiring in the current quarter, while 60% said they plan to add employees over the next six months.

Firms also continue to invest in their workforce with 57% reporting they increased compensation during the current quarter and 66% expecting to increase compensation over the next six months.

Persistent Inflation Sustains Pricing Pressures

The most pressing economic challenge for middle market firms continues to be inflation: 75% of respondents indicated that they paid higher prices in the current quarter, while 76% expect to do so going forward.

The survey data also suggests that firms are offsetting higher input costs through a mix of margin compression and downstream price increases. Roughly 66% of participants indicated they increased prices in the current quarter, and 70% said they expect to do so over the next six months.

The survey data that informs this index reading was gathered from 501 respondents at middle market firms in the United States from July 7 to July 29, 2026.

About the RSM US Middle Market Business Index 
The RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI) is based on research of middle market firms conducted by Harris Poll, which began in the first quarter of 2015. The survey is conducted four times a year, in the first month of each quarter: January, April, July and October. The Panel is in transition to reflect RSM's new definition of the US Middle Market. Panel members from smaller companies with revenue under $30M are being removed from the Panel through screening criteria in each quarterly survey. The Panel currently consists of approximately 400-500 active records who have conducted at least one survey in the past two years. 

Built in collaboration with Moody's Analytics, the MMBI is borne out of the subset of questions in the survey that asks respondents to report the change in a variety of indicators. Respondents are asked a total of 20 questions patterned after those in other qualitative business surveys, such as those from the Institute of Supply Management and National Federation of Independent Businesses. 

The 20 questions relate to changes in various measures of their business, such as revenues, profits, capital expenditures, hiring, employee compensation, prices paid, prices received and inventories. There are also questions that pertain to the economy and outlook, as well as to credit availability and borrowing. For 10 of the questions, respondents are asked to report the change from the previous quarter; for the other 10 they are asked to state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. 

The responses to each question are reported as diffusion indexes. The MMBI is a composite index computed as an equal weighted sum of the diffusion indexes for 10 survey questions plus 100 to keep the MMBI from becoming negative. A reading above 100 for the MMBI indicates that the middle market is generally expanding; below 100 indicates that it is generally contracting. The distance from 100 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or contraction. 

About RSM US LLP
For 100 years, RSM has empowered middle market companies worldwide to take charge of change. The clients we serve are the engine of global commerce and economic growth. Our unique understanding of the middle market makes RSM the natural choice for growth-oriented, internationally active organizations seeking relevant insights and tailored, innovative solutions for a complex and changing world. With a global reach spanning more than 120 countries, we instill confidence in a world of change by bringing the full power of RSM to make a lasting impact on our clients, colleagues and communities. For more information, visit rsmus.com, like us on Facebook and/or connect with us on LinkedIn.

SOURCE RSM US LLP