Sinopec Unveils Groundbreaking Global and Chinese Energy Forecast, Focusing on 2060 Vision and Industry Development
The Company Also Released the 2025 China Energy & Chemical Industry Development Report
BEIJING, Dec. 24, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (HKG: 0386, "Sinopec") unveiled major forecasts on a comprehensive view of global and Chinese energy landscapes over the next several decades, marking a significant milestone as Sinopec publishes its first-ever long-term global energy outlook of its kind.
Sinopec provides detailed predictions for the future of both fossil and renewable energy worldwide. Key insights include:
- Global Primary Energy Consumption: Expected to peak at 26.71 billion tonnes of coal equivalent by 2045, with renewable energy accounting for 51.8% of total energy consumption by 2060.
- Slowing Growth in Energy Consumption: Global energy consumption will gradually slow, reaching 25.25 billion tonnes of coal equivalent by 2060. By this time, oil and gas will together account for 35.7% of total energy consumption.
- Peak Oil Demand: Oil consumption is projected to peak at 4.66 billion tonnes around 2030. While the focus of consumption shifts from transportation to industrial feedstocks, oil will remain the dominant transportation fuel, with a 40% share of total transport energy demand by 2060.
- Rising Non-Fossil Energy: Significant growth in non-fossil energy sources such as hydrogen, CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage), and advanced energy storage technologies. Hydrogen consumption is expected to surpass 340 million tonnes by 2060, with its energy usage share growing from 2% in 2023 to nearly 50% by 2060. CCUS capacity is projected to reach 110 million tonnes of CO₂ captured by 2030, and 4.7 billion tonnes by 2060.
The China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition) delves into China's energy consumption and transformation, highlighting:
- Peak Energy Consumption: China's primary energy consumption is expected to plateau after 2030, reaching a peak range of 6.8–7.1 billion tonnes of coal equivalent. Oil consumption will peak before 2027, with a maximum of 800 million tonnes. Natural gas is anticipated to see a period of moderate to high growth, particularly between 2026 and 2030, when consumption is expected to increase by over 110 billion cubic meters.
- Shift to Non-Fossil Energy: By 2035, non-fossil energy power generation is projected to surpass fossil fuel-based generation, reaching 8,400 TWh. The share of non-fossil energy consumption will rise to 27% between 2026 and 2030. China's energy consumption transition will increasingly rely on a diversified mix, incorporating electricity, hydrogen, ammonia, and other clean alternatives.
- Carbon Emissions Peak: China's energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase slightly from 10.66 billion tonnes to a peak range of 10.8–11.2 billion tonnes. This trajectory will help ensure the country meets its carbon peak target by 2030.
The 2025 China Energy & Chemical Industry Development Report offers insights into the evolution of China's energy and chemical industries:
- Oil Refining Capacity: China's oil refining capacity is nearing its peak, with total refining output set to stabilize at 960–970 million tonnes per year by 2025.
- Challenges in the Chemical Sector: Despite significant growth, the chemical market faces challenges such as excess capacity in olefin and aromatic hydrocarbon industries, as well as sustained high output in bulk chemicals.
- Innovation Driving Growth: Innovation is identified as the primary force propelling China's energy and chemical industries toward a more sustainable future.
Through these reports, Sinopec offers a roadmap for policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the coming decades. The company remains committed to driving the energy transition, advancing technology, and promoting sustainable, low-carbon solutions across the energy and chemical sectors.
SOURCE SINOPEC
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