Slight Improvement in Employment Prospects Through First Six Months of 2010

ARLINGTON, Va., March 17 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Employment prospects appear to be stabilizing or slightly improving through the first six months of 2010. However, they have not improved dramatically over 2009 levels and still remain well below levels observed in 2006 through 2008, according to projections from 267 employers responding to specialized legal and business publisher BNA's latest quarterly employment survey.

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Hiring:

• Fifteen percent of surveyed employers plan to add production and service positions in the second quarter of 2010, up only slightly from projections for the first quarter of this year (12 percent) and the second quarter of 2009 (13 percent). This holding pattern, fluctuating within a narrow 2-point range since the second quarter of 2009, is in sharp contrast to the hiring percentage of the second quarter of 2008 (31 percent).
• A similar pattern obtains in employment prospects for office and clerical staff. Nine percent of responding organizations anticipate adding new office and clerical positions in April through June of this year, unchanged from last quarter and only 3 points higher than second quarter 2009 figures (6 percent). Projected new hires are still far below levels seen for the second quarter of 2008 (16 percent).
• Hiring plans for professional and technical workers may be showing signs of modest improvement. Anticipated staff additions have grown from 15 percent of surveyed employers in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 17 percent in the first quarter and 22 percent in the second quarter of this year. These planned hires of professional and technical staff are nearly half of what was observed in the second quarter of 2008 (40 percent).

Reductions in Force:

Accompanying this stabilization or modest increase in planned hires has been a decline in anticipated reductions-in-force.

• One in ten employers (10 percent) expect to trim production/service staff levels in the second quarter, little changed from projections in the first quarter (11 percent) but down 11 points from projections in the second quarter of last year (21 percent).
• Five percent of employers anticipate shedding technical and professional staff in April through June of this year, down from 10 percent in the first quarter and 17 percent in the second quarter of 2009.
• Reductions in office and clerical positions are expected at 8 percent of surveyed firms, compared with 12 percent last quarter, and 21 percent in the second quarter of 2009.

Layoffs:

Looking at the incidence of layoffs, sharp increases from the first to the second quarter of last year have given way to moderating trends in the remainder of 2009 and declines in the first quarter of this year.

• Reports of production and service employees on inactive status, in spite of an increase from 13 percent in the first quarter of 2009 to a 10-year high of 29 percent in the third quarter, have declined to 20 percent in the first quarter of this year. Still, when compared with the 9 percent of employers reporting furloughed production and service staff in the first quarter of 2008, it is evident that there is still considerable room for improvement.
• Following a jump in reported layoffs of professional and technical workers from 9 percent of employers in the first quarter of 2009 to 20 percent in the second quarter of that year, the proportion of firms with professional/technical staff on inactive status fluctuated in a narrow 2-point range for the remainder of 2009. From the fourth quarter of last year, however, to the first quarter of this one, there has been a 6 percentage point decline (from 20 percent to 14 percent) in the incidence of layoffs. While the numbers appear to be moving in the right direction, the seriousness of the current situation is evident when compared with the only 1 percent of employers that reported technical and professional staff on layoff in the first quarter of 2008.
• A similar pattern is evident for office and clerical workers. From 9 percent in the first quarter of 2009, reports of workers on layoff jumped to a 10-year high of 24 percent surveyed employers in the second quarter of that year. This figure has declined to 14 percent of employers in the first quarter of 2010 but is still far above the 1 percent of employers reporting office and clerical staff on layoff status in the first quarter of 2008.

Job Vacancies:

• In reports on job vacancies, 35 percent of employers report some difficulty filling existing technical and professional positions in the first quarter of 2010, up somewhat since the fourth quarter of 2009 (30 percent) but unchanged from the first quarter of 2009.
• For production and service workers, 8 percent of surveyed employers report some vacancies in the first quarter of 2010, only a marginal change from vacancy rates reported in the fourth quarter (7 percent) and the first quarter of 2009 (10 percent).
• Two percent of employers had problems filling office and clerical positions in the first quarter, down only slightly from first quarter (4 percent) and fourth quarter of 2009 (5 percent).

BNA's survey of the employment outlook has been conducted quarterly since 1974. This report is based on responses from 267 human resource and employee relations executives representing a cross-section of U.S. employers, both public and private.

BNA is the leading independent publisher of print and electronic news and analysis for professionals in business and government. Through survey research, expert analysis, and in-depth reporting, BNA continues to advance the understanding and practice of human resources and labor relations within organizations. Visit BNA at www.bna.com.

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Matthew Sottong

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SOURCE BNA