S&P Global Mobility: U.S. auto sales expected to post modest gains in July
New light vehicle sales in July are expected to be up slightly, supported by the next pull-ahead wave, this time for electric vehicles
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Aug. 1, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales volume in July 2025 will reach 1.33 million units. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.9 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), up mildly from the 15.5 million-unit pace averaged from May-June.
"Overall, auto demand in July is expected to remain modest, as affordability concerns remain entrenched. The pace of sales is expected to improve compared to the previous two months as the market digests the likely beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025. This time sales will be buoyed by a run up in battery electric vehicle (BEV) in advance of the September 30th expiration of federal EV incentives," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While the expiration of federal EV incentives will create longer-term headwinds for BEV growth, price-conscious consumers looking to take advantage of the savings are likely to do so before the end of the third quarter, helping to push overall new vehicle volumes, although to a lesser degree than realized back in March and April."
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales |
||||
July 25 (Est) |
Jun 25 |
July 24 |
||
Total Light Vehicle |
Units, NSA |
1,325,200 |
1,254,418 |
1,285,711 |
In millions, SAAR |
15.9 |
15.3 |
15.8 |
|
Light Truck |
In millions, SAAR |
13.1 |
12.8 |
12.9 |
Passenger Car |
In millions, SAAR |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis |
||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth. In the immediate term, even more month-to-month BEV sales and market share volatility is anticipated, as EV share mix from July-September is expected to advance, followed by much lower take rates in the fourth quarter of 2025. BEV share of sales in July is expected to reach over 9% (compared to the year-to-date average of 7.3% through May 2025)
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
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