Spirits and Wine Sales Slump in Q1 2025, But SipSource Forecasts Hit the Mark

Despite Ongoing Market Challenges, SipSource Data and Analysts Deliver Industry-Leading Accuracy

WASHINGTON, May 5, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The latest data from SipSource, the only wine and spirits data source with real wholesaler depletion data, reveals that both the spirits and wine categories faced a difficult first quarter of 2025, with volume and revenue declines accelerating across the board. However, amidst this turbulence, SipSource's forecasting accuracy remains remarkably strong with the most recent release demonstrating 99%+ accuracy, allowing the industry to better plan and manage the business during challenging times.

According to March-ending SipSource data and analysts, spirits volume dropped -6.3% and revenue fell -5.1% in the first quarter of 2025. Rolling 12-month figures as of the end of Q1 stand at -3.8% for volume and -3.9% for revenue.

The SipSource Core Spirits Forecast released in January predicted that Q1 rolling 12-month volume would decline at -3.84%, demonstrating 99+% accuracy vs the actual decline of -3.8%. This continues to underscore the unmatched reliability and power of the platform's predictive analytics. No other data source can claim to be built on the most comprehensive and timely distributor depletion data available which is in turn analyzed using advanced machine learning-powered techniques by our partners at global consultancy Kearney.

This advancement comes at a critical time when businesses urgently need trusted insight to guide strategy and investment. Contact SipSource ([email protected]) to subscribe and access granular category and price-tier level forecasts.

The wine category also struggled, with volume down -9.9% and revenue slipping -10.5% in Q1. According to SipSource analysts, previously encouraging trends for lower-priced Table Wines have reversed, while premium wines over $50 are seeing growth in volume but continued softness in revenue as suppliers move through inventory backlogs.

Additionally, the latest SipSource data highlights a major shift in premiumization trends. After years where revenue growth outpaced volume, recent months have seen volume trends outstrip revenue in the wine category, while spirits revenue has recently rebounded ahead of volume trends — a reversal that will be critical to monitor moving forward.

Looking ahead, the SipSource Spirits Forecast projects Core Spirits rolling 12-month volume to stabilize in negative territory, ending Q2 at -3.83%. Given the platform's proven track record, this projection offers the best available benchmark for beverage alcohol businesses navigating a dynamic landscape.

"There's no sugarcoating the challenges ahead, but with SipSource, businesses can prepare smarter," say SipSource analysts. "As we move deeper into 2025, having real-time, trusted insights isn't just an advantage — it's a necessity."

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SOURCE Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America