The Age-Related Macular Degeneration Drug Market Will Grow to Nearly $9 Billion in 2023, Fueled in Part by the Anticipated Launch of the First Therapies for Geographic Atrophy

BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the market for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) pharmacotherapies will expand 6 percent annually to reach nearly $9 billion in 2023 in the G7 pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan). Forces combining to drive forecasted market growth include increasing AMD prevalence due to population aging, rising rates of polypharmacy, and the anticipated launch and rapid uptake of the first agents for the treatment of geographic atrophy—the advanced dry form of AMD.

Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled Age-Related Macular Degeneration:

• First drug approved for geographic atrophy: Following a projected launch in the second half of the 2013-2023 forecast period, Roche/Genentech's lampalizumab will become the first agent ever approved for the treatment of geographic atrophy, a clinical and commercial milestone leading to the advent and rapid expansion of this market segment. Decision Resources Group forecasts that lampalizumab will achieve blockbuster sales peaking beyond 2023, despite early competition from Acucela/Otsuka's emixustat hydrochloride for the treatment of geographic atrophy, which is expected to launch shortly after lampalizumab.
• Increasing polypharmacy in wet AMD: Monotherapy with current mainstays Lucentis (Roche/Genentech/Novartis), Eylea (Regeneron/Bayer HealthCare), and off-label Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai) will continue to dominate wet AMD treatment. The 2018 U.S. launch of Fovista (Ophthotech/Novartis), which is being developed as an adjunct therapy, will formalize and substantially expand combination treatment for the disease, adding more than $500 million to the AMD market in 2023.
• Factors constraining growth of AMD market: Biosimilar versions of wet AMD mainstays expected to launch in the second half of the forecast period will lead to moderate brand share erosion. In the nearer term, the efforts of some European governments to formally permit the off-label use of Avastin for wet AMD will temper the patient share of approved VEGF inhibitors.

Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Nadja Rozovsky, Ph.D.:

• "The prognosis of geographic atrophy patients is expected to improve substantially with the advent of effective treatments for the disease. With a forecasted growth in diagnosis and prescription drug-treatment rates and the assumption of premium pricing for emerging agents, the G7 market for geographic atrophy therapies is expected to rapidly cross the billion dollar threshold within three years of the first launch."
• "As an adjunctive treatment, Fovista will avoid direct competition with established wet AMD agents. Its commercial success, however, will depend on whether pricing and reimbursement terms will be favorable in the major markets, based on a cost/benefit analysis of its value as an additive treatment, and how widely physicians would incorporate this regimen-based approach in wet AMD. The focus of the Fovista Phase II trials in additional patient subgroups, such as those at risk for subretinal fibrosis or who are refractory to currently available VEGF inhibitors therapies, likely will drive endorsement among retinal specialists and payers alike."

About Decision Resources Group
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