The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Decreased in September

NEW YORK, Oct. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) fell to 107.56 in September, a 0.5% decline from its downwardly revised reading of 108.08 in August. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"The ETI decreased in September, after two consecutive monthly increases in July and August," said Conrad Qi, Economic Data Scientist Associate, The Conference Board. "Despite partially reversing its recent gains, the ETI remains 1.0% above its level one year ago, suggesting moderate payroll employment growth ahead."

Qi continued, "Consumer and small firm measures made the largest negative contributions to the ETI in September. The share of consumers reporting that jobs are 'hard to get'—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—rose to 21.9% in September from a revised 20.3% in August. The share of small firms reporting positions they could not fill right now fell 3 percentage points to 32% from 35%, alongside a decline in the share of owners hiring or trying to hire. Weaker perceptions of job availability and reduced small-business recruitment suggest a more difficult environment for jobseekers."

The ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers also contributed negatively to the index, rising to 16.5% in September from 16.2% in August, indicating greater underemployment among part-time workers. Employment in temporary help services—an ETI component drawn from the payroll survey—fell by 10,900, even as total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 in September.

Partially offsetting these negative contributions, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell in September, providing the month's largest positive contribution to the ETI and signaling few layoffs. Job openings were estimated to have increased by 129,000 to 7.21 million in September. Estimated increases of 0.3% in industrial production and 0.1% in real manufacturing and trade sales also supported the index.

Overall, four out of the ETI's eight components contributed positively to the index in September. Ranked by the magnitude of their positive contributions, they were:

• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
• Job Openings
• Industrial Production, and
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales

Four out of the ETI's eight components contributed negatively to the Index in September. Ranked by the magnitude of their negative contributions, they were:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get,'
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now,
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, and
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)†
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for the two most recent months
† The missing October 2025 part-time ratio is estimated by linear interpolation.

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

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SOURCE The Conference Board