The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Slightly in June

Jul 23, 2012, 22:00 ET from The Conference Board

BEIJING, July 23, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.1 percent in June to 234.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in May and a 0.9 percent increase in April. Only one of the six components contributed positively to the index in June.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "In June, the month-on-month growth rate of the China LEI slowed significantly with all components except bank loans declining. Overall, the short term trend in the leading economic index indicates that economic activity is still policy- and credit-led. Bank credit expansion has been the only consistently rising leading index component over the last six months. Coupled with slowing and volatile (month-on-month) growth in the CEI for China, the composite indexes suggest that the real economy is not showing any material rebound, and that this situation is likely to persist for several months to come. Until monetary loosening passes through to fuel real economic activity and boost private sector demand, the stabilization of the economy will remain tenuous."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent to 219.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in May and a 0.6 percent decline in April. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in June.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2012

6-month


Apr

May

 Jun  

Dec to Jun






Leading Economic index (LEI)

232.2 p 

 234.7 p

 234.9 p


Percent Change

0.9 p

1.1 p 

  0.1 p

5.9

Diffusion

58.3

75.0

25.0

58.3






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

217.4 r

218.7

219.8 p


Percent Change

-0.6

0.6

0.5 p

1.9

Diffusion

40.0

60.0

80.0

60.0






n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

About The Conference Board

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