The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Fell again in September

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Oct 20, 2015, 12:30 ET

MUMBAI, India, Oct. 20, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India decreased 0.5 percent in September to 102.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in August and a 1.7 percent increase in July. Positive contributors to the index were the interest rate spread, M3: bank credit to commercial sector, and cargo handled*. The SENSEX stock prices index, the real effective exchange rate (36 countries), merchandise exports, and PMI: services business activity declined, while industrial production: capital goods* remained unchanged.

"The Leading Economic Index for India fell in September for the second consecutive month, led by declining stock prices, a sliding exchange rate, and a pull back in exports and the service sector," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "Despite further easing of monetary policy, India will continue facing challenges in the near future from both tepid domestic demand and a slower global growth climate."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.6 percent in September to 110.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in August and a 1.2 percent increase in July. Only industrial production* increased in September.

* August figures are based on The Conference Board estimates

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

			2015				6-month
	Jul		Aug		Sep		Mar to Sep

Leading Economic Index	103.5		103.0	r	102.5	p
Percent Change	1.7		-0.5	r	-0.5	p	0.6
Diffusion	93.8		37.5		50.0		62.5

Coincident Economic Index	110.6	r	111.1	r	110.4	p
Percent Change	1.2	r	0.5	r	-0.6	p	4.3
Diffusion	100.0		33.3		33.3		66.7

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved