The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

Mar 22, 2011, 05:00 ET from The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, March 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent in January to 106.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.8 percent increase in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in January to 105.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December, and no change in November.

The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been on a rising trend for almost two years now, amid widespread strength among its components. However, its six-month growth rate has moderated from the middle of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany has risen strongly for the past couple of months, after remaining essentially flat in the third quarter of 2010. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue expanding at a moderate pace in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods

Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month

Change in Inventories

Gross Enterprise and Property Income

Stock Prices

New Orders, Residential Construction

Consumer Confidence Index



About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Indexes







2010

2011

6-month


Nov

Dec

Jan

Jul to Jan






Leading Economic Index (LEI)

106.0 r

106.4 p

106.8 p


   Percent Change

0.8 r

0.4 p

0.4 p

3.8 p

   Diffusion

78.6

71.4

64.3

85.7






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

104.6 r

104.9 r

105.3


   Percent Change

0.0 r

0.3 r

0.4

1.1

   Diffusion

50.0

75.0

100.0

75.0






n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board     All Rights Reserved



SOURCE The Conference Board



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