The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

Jan 23, 2014, 04:00 ET from The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, Jan. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.6 percent in November to 108.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.2 percent decline in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in November to 107.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in October, and no change in August.

The LEI for Germany has been improving since the end of 2012, though its six-month growth rate has moderated recently. The CEI slightly increased through 2013, and its six-month growth rate has also moderated. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy's recent slow to moderate expansion will continue in the first half of 2014.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods 
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month 
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm


Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2013

6-month


Sep

Oct

Nov

May to Nov










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

107.4

p  

107.6

p  

108.2

p



   Percent Change  

-0.2

p  

0.2

p  

0.6

p  

1.9

p

   Diffusion  

57.1


42.9


78.6


85.7











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

107.6


107.5


107.8




   Percent Change  

0.0


-0.1


0.3


0.4


   Diffusion  

62.5


25.0


100.0


75.0











n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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