The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increases

Sep 08, 2011, 21:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Sept. 8, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 0.9 percent in July to 93.8 (2004 = 100), following no change in June, and a 0.9 percent decline in May.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, decreased 0.3 percent in July to 96.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in June, and a 0.4 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased in July for the first time since the March earthquake, but there were large downward revisions to the previous several months and the six-month growth in the leading economic index continued to decline. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Japan decreased this month after increasing in the previous two months, and its six-month growth rate has remained negative through July. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity will remain weak in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes






Jan to Jul

Leading Economic index (LEI)

93.0 r

93.0 p

93.8 p

   Percent Change

-0.9 r

0.0 p

0.9 p

-2.7 p






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

96.6 r

97.1 p

96.8 p

   Percent Change

0.4 r

0.5 p

-0.3 p

-2.1 p






n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

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SOURCE The Conference Board