The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area Continued to Decline in September

Oct 26, 2011, 04:00 ET from The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, Oct. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area declined by 0.7 percent in September to 105.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent decrease in August and a 0.1 percent decrease in July.  

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The LEI for the Euro Area fell sharply in August on the back of a severe deterioration in business confidence and stock prices which continued in September. The sovereign debt crisis and the uncertainty concerning its resolution are beginning to dampen current economic activity and the immediate outlook. The prospect of a banking crisis and increased fears of recession are self-reinforcing and an economic contraction cannot be ruled out in the very near term."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in September. The index stands at 103.7 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI increased 0.2 percent in August and 0.3 percent in July.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area  

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)

Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)

Index of Capital Goods New Orders (source: Eurostat)

EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)

Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)

Interest Rate Spread (source: ECB)

Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (source: Markit Economics)

Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)  



To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply, residential building permits, and new orders of capital goods. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2011

6-month


Jul

Aug

Sep

Mar to Sep






Leading Economic Index (LEI)

108.1 p

106.7 p

105.9 p


Percent Change

-0.1 p

-1.3 p

-0.7 p

-2.6 p

Diffusion

50.0

25.0

12.5

25.0






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

103.4 p

103.6 p

103.7 p


Percent Change

0.3 p

0.2 p

0.1 p

0.8 p

Diffusion

100.0

75.0

62.5

100.0






n.a. Not available       p Preliminary       r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

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