The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area Increased in June

Jul 27, 2015, 09:30 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, July 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.4 percent to 107.1 (2010=100) in June, following a 0.3 percent increase in May and a 0.5 percent increase in April.

"The LEI increased again in June, suggesting that the Euro Area's economy should remain on track for a modest recovery through the remainder of the year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, at The Conference Board. "Further declines in stock prices were offset by improved consumer expectations. June's weak industrial production figures might be reversed in coming months, but political volatility and financial risks could derail the Euro Area recovery, especially if the Greek crisis resurfaces as a concern for Europe as a whole."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in June. The index now stands at 100.4* (2010 = 100). The CEI increased 0.1 percent in both May and April.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Consumer expectation of general economic condition of next 12 months (source: European Commission)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (source: European Central Bank)
Capital Goods New Orders, index (source: European Central Bank)
Markit Manufacturing New Orders Index (source: Markit Economics)
Markit Business Expectations Index, Service (source: Markit Economics) 

Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are capital goods new orders and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

To view The Conference Board calendar for 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes




2015




6-month


Apr


May


Jun


Dec to

Jun










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

106.4

p

106.7

p

107.1

p



  Percent Change

0.5

p

0.3

p

0.4

p

3.1

p

  Diffusion

81.3


56.3


75.0


100.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

100.3

p

100.4

p

100.4

p



  Percent Change

0.1

p

0.1

p

0.0

p

0.4

p

  Diffusion

75.0


62.5


62.5


100.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









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SOURCE The Conference Board



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