The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Increased in July

Sep 09, 2011, 05:00 ET from The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, Sept. 9, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.3 percent in July, after remaining unchanged in June and increasing 0.6 percent in May. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in July. The index stands at 104.4 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The LEI for the United Kingdom remained on its rising trend in July, signalling positive but subdued economic growth in the near term. However, current economic conditions remain weak. The new bout of financial market volatility and the recent decline in consumer confidence suggest a further worsening of the balance of risks to the outlook. As there is little prospect for additional economic policies to support economic activity in the short term, weak and volatile growth should prevail in the foreseeable future."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in July, after increasing 0.1 percent in June and declining 0.1 percent in May. The index stands at 102.6 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes






Jan to Jul

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

104.1 p

104.1 p

104.4 p

   Percent Change

0.6 p

0.0 p

0.3 p

2.0 p






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

102.5 p

102.6 p

102.6 p

   Percent Change

-0.1 p

0.1 p

0.0 p

-0.1 p






n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

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