The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Increases Again

Jun 15, 2010, 05:00 ET from The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, June 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased by 0.6 percent in April to 102.2 (2004 = 100), following gains of 1.1 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index.

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The slowing momentum of the leading economic index and the essentially flat trend in the coincident economic index since October point to a continuing but fragile recovery in the U.K. The dampening impact of the Euro Area crisis as well as the impending deficit reduction measures are likely to weigh on economic activity in 2011."

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been increasing for more than a year, but remains 2.5 percent below its June 2007 peak. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in April after increasing by 0.2 percent in March and 0.3 percent in February.  The index now stands at 102.4 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)

FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)

Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)

Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)

Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases:

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes






Oct to Apr

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

100.5 p

101.6 p

102.2 p

 Percent Change

0.6 p

1.1 p

0.6 p

4.5 p






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

102.2 p

102.4 p

102.4 p

 Percent Change

0.3 p

0.2 p

0.0 p

-0.1 p






n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

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