The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Edged Down in August

NEW YORK, Sept. 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US decreased by 0.1% in August 2026 to 99.5 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.2% in July. As a result, the LEI's six-month growth was –0.1% between February and August 2026, a much smaller rate of decline compared to –0.6% over the previous six months.

"The US LEI receded slightly in August, the first monthly decline since March of this year," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Four out of ten components fell compared to the previous month, with consumer expectations remaining a significant strain on the Index. Building permits also declined on a monthly basis, with decreases in both single- and multi-unit categories and across nearly all regions. The West was the only exception, recording a small increase in total permits. Due to the latest decline, the LEI's six-month growth rate turned back to slightly negative, suggesting a less certain economic environment ahead. The economy is still expanding, but growth is expected to slow. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP to increase at a 1.9% rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 downwardly revised from 1.9% to 1.8%."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.1% in August 2026 to 114.9 (2016=100), following 0.2% increases in both June and July. Overall, the CEI rose by 0.4% over the six months between February and August 2026, a slightly higher rate of growth than the 0.3% uptick over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI made positive contributions last month.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.2% in August 2026 to 120.6 (2016=100), after also rising by 0.2% in July. The LAG was up 0.9% between February and August 2026, tripling its 0.3% growth over the prior six months (August 2025 to February 2026).

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, October 22, 2026, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:

• Average weekly hours in manufacturing
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
• Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
• ISM^® Index of New Orders
• Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
• Building permits for new private housing units
• S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices
• Leading Credit Index^™
• Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
• Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:

• Payroll employment
• Personal income less transfer payments
• Manufacturing and trade sales
• Industrial production

To access data, please visit: https://www.conference-board.org/data

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org  l  Learn about Membership

SOURCE The Conference Board