The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Edged Up in July

NEW YORK, Aug. 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 99.5 (2016=100), after an upwardly revised decline of 0.1% in June. As a result, the LEI's six-month growth rate turned positive, to an increase of 0.2% between January and July 2026, a sharp reversal from its 1.3% contraction over the previous six months.

"The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI's six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 114.8 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in June. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.5% over the six months between January and July 2026, after remaining flat over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI, except for payroll employment, made positive contributions last month.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 120.4 (2016=100). Despite the month-over-month increase, the level of the index was still below the preliminary June level of 120.5 (2016=100), due to downward revisions from April to June 2026. The LAG was up 0.8% between January and July 2026, doubling its 0.4% growth over the prior six months (July 2025 to January 2026).

The next release is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:

• Average weekly hours in manufacturing
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
• Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
• ISM^® Index of New Orders
• Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
• Building permits for new private housing units
• S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices
• Leading Credit Index^™
• Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
• Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:

• Payroll employment
• Personal income less transfer payments
• Manufacturing and trade sales
• Industrial production

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org  l  Learn about Membership

SOURCE The Conference Board