Three-Quarters of Americans Say Country Going Off on Wrong Track

Only one-third of Americans think President Obama will be re-elected

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Jul 20, 2011, 12:00 ET

NEW YORK, July 20, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The debate on the debt ceiling continues and the deadline looms even larger as it appears the government may face default. From one day to another there are conflicting stories about what might happen and this is definitely weighing on the American psyche. Just one-quarter of U.S. adults (25%) believes things in the country are going in the right direction while three-quarters (75%) say they have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track. This is a big drop from last month when one-third (32%) said things were going in the right direction and 68% believed they were off on the wrong track.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

President Obama's ratings

Thoughts about the country changed, but opinions on how President Obama is doing his job have not. Just like last month, less than two in five Americans (38%) give the President positive ratings on the overall job he is doing and 62% give him negative marks. Nine in ten Republicans (92%) and Conservatives (89%) give the President negative marks which is not all that surprising. But two-thirds of Independents (68%), three in five Moderates (60%) and even one-third of Democrats (33%) and three in ten Liberals (29%) give the overall job President Obama is doing negative ratings.

Congressional ratings

President Obama's ratings may not have changed, but Congress's job ratings have slid down even further. In June, one in ten Americans (11%) gave Congress positive marks for their overall job and 89% gave them negative ones. This month, just 8% of Americans give Congress positive ratings and 92% give them negative marks. And party doesn't matter as 89% of Democrats, 93% of Republicans and 95% of Independents all give Congress negative ratings.

President Obama's re-election

As his job ratings haven't changed neither have President Obama's re-election numbers. In June, just over half (52%) of Americans said, if the election for President were held today, they would be unlikely to vote for President Obama and 41% said they would be likely. This month, 52% again say they would be unlikely to vote for him while 42% would be likely. Again, Republicans are holding steady with nine in ten (88%) saying they would be unlikely to vote for him. However over half of Independents (57%) and one in five Democrats (21%) also say they would be unlikely to vote for President Obama if the election were held today.

Also telling is what could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. While the election is still over a year away, only one-third of Americans (35%) think President Obama will be re-elected, two in five (42%) do not think he will be re-elected and one-quarter (23%) are not at all sure. Among his own partisans, while 59% of Democrats believe the President will be re-elected, one in five say they do not think he will be (19%) or are not at all sure (21%).

So What?

In politics, especially when it comes to upcoming elections, 15 months is multiple lifetimes. So much can happen between now and this November, much less next November, and these numbers will change often over the coming months. But, at the same time, they are a snapshot into the mind of the American voter right now and, for the White House and incumbents in Congress, this is not a pretty picture. People are unhappy. Are they angry voters? That we don't know yet. But if these numbers continue like this, next November could see incumbents of both parties losing in large numbers as voters look for someone new to try to solve their problems.

TABLE 1 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING - TREND "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?" Base: All adults
	TREND	Positive*	Negative**
	TREND	%	%
2011	July	38	62
	June	38	62
	May 19th	45	55
	May 9th	46	54
	April	38	62
	March	39	61
	Feb.	42	58
	Jan.	44	56
2010	Dec.	36	64
	Nov.	38	62
	Oct.	37	63
	Sept.	38	62
	Aug.	40	60
	June	39	61
	May	42	58
	April	41	59
	March	41	59
	Jan.	40	60
2009	Dec.	41	59
	Nov.	43	57
	Oct.	45	55
	Sept.	49	51
	Aug.	51	49
	June	54	46
	May	59	41
	April	58	42
	March	55	45
Positive = excellent or pretty good. *Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 2 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY PARTY & IDEOLOGY "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?" Base: All adults
	Total	Political Party			Political Ideology
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	38	8	67	32	11	40	71
Excellent	7	1	14	4	2	7	14
Pretty good	31	7	53	28	9	33	56
NEGATIVE	62	92	33	68	89	60	29
Only fair	29	30	25	29	26	34	19
Poor	34	63	8	39	63	25	10
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY REGION, EDUCATION & GENDER "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?" Base: All adults
	Total	Region				Education
	Total	East	Midwest	South	West	H.S. or less	Some college	College grad	Post grad
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	38	36	41	34	42	30	37	46	57
Excellent	7	8	6	7	7	6	6	6	16
Pretty good	31	28	35	27	35	24	31	41	40
NEGATIVE	62	64	59	66	58	70	63	54	43
Only fair	29	36	28	27	25	31	28	28	22
Poor	34	29	31	40	33	39	35	26	22
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4 CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING "How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?" Base: All adults
	Total	Political Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	8	7	11	5
Excellent	1	1	1	1
Pretty good	7	6	9	4
NEGATIVE	92	93	89	95
Only fair	38	43	37	33
Poor	54	50	52	62
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5 CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING – TREND "How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?" Base: All adults
	TREND	Positive*	Negative**
	TREND	%	%
2011	July	8	92
	June	11	89
	May 19th	12	88
	May 9th	13	87
	April	8	92
	March	10	90
	February	14	86
	January	16	84
2010	December	11	89
	November	13	87
	October	11	89
	September	13	87
	August	15	85
	June	14	86
	May	15	85
	April	16	84
	March	10	90
	Jan.	16	84
2009	Dec.	17	83
	Oct.	16	84
	Sept.	19	81
	Aug.	22	78
	June	25	75
	March	29	71
2008	October	10	86
	August	18	77
	June	13	83
	February	20	76
2007	December	17	79
	October	20	77
	April	27	69
	February	33	62
2006	September	24	73
	May	18	80
	February	25	71
	January	25	72
Positive = excellent or pretty good. *Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 6 RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK "Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?" Base: All adults
	TREND	Right Direction	Wrong Track
	TREND	%	%
2011	July	25	75
	June	32	68
	May	39	61
	April	26	74
	March	28	72
	February	36	64
	January	37	63
2010	December	29	71
	November	33	67
	April	39	61
2009	August	46	54
	January	19	72
2008	October	11	83
	February	23	69
2007	December	18	74
	February	29	62
2006	May	24	69
	February	32	59
2005	November	27	68
	January	46	48
2004	September	38	57
	June	35	59
2003	December	35	57
	June	44	51
2002	December	36	57
	June	46	48
2001	December	65	32
	June	43	52
2000	October	50	41
	June	40	51
1999	June	37	55
	March	47	45
1998	December	43	51
	June	48	44
1997	December	39	56
	April	36	55
1996	December	38	50
	June	29	64
1995	December	26	62
	June	24	65
1994	December	29	63
	June	28	65
1993	June	21	70
	March	39	50
1992	June	12	81
	January	20	75
1991	December	17	75
	January	58	32

TABLE 7 VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA "If the election for president were to be held today, how likely would you be to vote for the current president, Barack Obama?" Base: All adults
	May 9	May 19	June	July
	%	%	%	%
Likely	46	43	41	42
Very likely	33	32	30	30
Somewhat likely	14	11	11	12
Unlikely	47	49	52	52
Somewhat unlikely	7	8	7	8
Very unlikely	40	41	45	44
Not at all sure	6	8	6	6
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 8 VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA – BY POLITICAL PARTY "If the election for president were to be held today, how likely would you be to vote for the current president, Barack Obama?" Base: All adults
	July
	July	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely	42	10	74	36	12	47	75
Very likely	30	5	59	23	8	31	60
Somewhat likely	12	5	15	13	4	15	15
Unlikely	52	88	21	57	84	45	23
Somewhat unlikely	8	10	4	10	7	9	7
Very unlikely	44	78	17	48	77	36	16
Not at all sure	6	2	5	6	4	9	2
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 9 LIKELIHOOD OF OBAMA'S RE-ELECTION "If you had to say now, do you think that President Obama will be re-elected, or not?" Base: All adults
	Total	Political Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%
I think he will be re-elected.	35	12	59	31
I do not think he will be re-elected.	42	68	19	45
Not at all sure.	23	20	21	24
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J40488
Q1205, 1210, 1215, 1218, 1250

The Harris Poll^® #85, July 20, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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SOURCE Harris Interactive