Treasuries Rallied as Tech Slid, and the Crowded Bet Against Bonds Felt It
NEW YORK, Oct. 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Stock Preachers News Commentary - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell about 17 basis points last week while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5%, the largest same-week decline in both since the April 2025 tariff turmoil, Bloomberg reported. The move caught investors who had positioned heavily for a deeper slump in bonds, after 10-year yields climbed over the prior seven months to their highest levels in more than two decades. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: IEF), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE Arca: TBT), Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV).
The trigger was a sell-off in AI-linked technology stocks. As shares fell, Treasuries showed early signs of acting like a safe haven again, a role they have failed to play for much of the past few years, partly because oil-driven sell-offs can push stocks and bonds lower together. Commodity trading advisers, the trend-following funds that had built bearish Treasury futures positions at what Bloomberg described as 'extremely short' levels, exited those bets last week, adding fuel to the rally.
Rate expectations had swung hard. Traders at one point priced about a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, and still expect one increase by year-end and another in 2027, according to Bloomberg. At the same time, the AI build-out has leaned on bond markets: investment-grade companies, led by megacap technology, have sold about $1.7 trillion of bonds this year, up about 29% from a year earlier.
"To paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of the death of US Treasuries are greatly exaggerated," James Athey, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management, told Bloomberg.
Bond and tech charts told this story in real time. Learn how to read them with the free Stock Preachers guide at stockpreachers.com
In other industry developments and happenings in the market this week include:
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)
The long end did the heavy lifting. The iShares fund, which tracks U.S. Treasuries with more than 20 years to maturity, rose 2.65% last week, from $77.98 at the October 9 close to $80.05 on October 16, according to Stock Analysis data. The fund holds about $47 billion in assets and charges a 0.15% expense ratio. Long-dated bonds move the most in price when yields change, which is why the long end led the rally.
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: IEF)
The intermediate fund gained 1.14% over the same period, from $89.40 to $90.42, with about $41 billion in assets. Some strategists favor intermediate maturities as the hedge. Julius Baer found that 10-year Treasuries consistently delivered positive returns during equity drawdowns from 2000 to 2020, and fixed-income strategist Afonso Borges said intermediate Treasuries "should again serve as an effective portfolio hedge," Bloomberg reported.
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE Arca: TBT)
For investors on the other side of the trade, last week hurt. The ProShares fund seeks two times the inverse of the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, and it fell 5.07%, from $42.05 to $39.92. ProShares notes that returns over periods longer than one day can differ significantly from that daily target.
The fund is a simple read on how the short-bond trade fared. Its steepest drop came on October 15, when it lost 2.94% as the 10-year yield fell 10.5 basis points, according to TheStreet.
Leveraged funds like this one reward timing. The free Stock Preachers guide walks through the chart basics traders use to time entries and exits, at stockpreachers.com.
Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ)
The Invesco fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.52% last week, from $751.27 to $709.80, matching the index's 5.5% slide. It dropped 1.97% on October 14, the day a hotter-than-expected inflation report pushed yields higher, and another 2.50% on Friday as the AI sell-off resumed.
CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV)
CoreWeave became the market's clearest gauge of stress in AI debt. The shares fell 25.21% last week, from $82.08 to $61.39, including drops of 15.46% on October 14 and 11.91% on October 16. The spread on its five-year credit default swaps hit a record of about 1,195 basis points on October 15, and the yield on its October 2031 bond rose above 16%, The Motley Fool reported, citing roughly $52 billion in loans and lease obligations.
"If investors are seeing their AI-linked bonds losing value, they will be less interested in buying new bonds," John Briggs, head of U.S. rates strategy at Natixis North America, told Bloomberg.
Want to spot the next turn in bonds, tech or the AI trade on the chart first? Download the free Stock Preachers guide to reading charts, plus The Roadmap market reports, at stockpreachers.com.
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