Treasury Polled Its Dealers on Auction Sizes and Bigger Long-End Buybacks Ahead of Wednesday's Refunding

Stock Preachers News Commentary

CHICAGO, Nov. 2, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. Treasury Department is scheduled to publish updated borrowing estimates today and its quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday, November 4, and this time the agenda reaches beyond the usual auction calendar. In the run-up, Treasury asked its primary dealers how investor demand for its debt is shifting, what changes to auction sizes it should consider, how its enlarged buybacks of longer-dated bonds have worked, and whether it should begin avoiding auctions of bills and floating rate notes on days when the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to release a policy statement, a practice it typically already follows for nominal coupons and inflation-protected securities. Meanwhile, the exchanges, trading platforms and banks that carry Treasury trading, clearing and collateral have reported third-quarter results in recent weeks as the industry prepares for a central clearing deadline at the end of the year. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME), Tradeweb Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: TW), MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MKTX), Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BNY).

Treasury set its current course at the August refunding. In its August 5 statement, it said that based on current projected borrowing needs it anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, while it continues to evaluate potential future changes with a focus on trends in structural demand and the potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles. It also said it is monitoring the Federal Reserve's purchases of Treasury bills and growing private-sector demand for bills. The anticipated October sizes it laid out were $39 billion for the 10-year note, $13 billion for the 20-year bond and $22 billion for the 30-year bond, and those were the amounts offered at the October auctions. Treasury's August 3 estimate called for $628 billion of privately-held net marketable borrowing in the October to December quarter, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion, and its refunding documents page lists the next estimates for November 2.

Buybacks are also on the table. On August 19, Treasury said it would at least double the size of its liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9 and through November 4. It said it would provide more information about future buyback sizes at this week's refunding. The dealer agenda Treasury posted on October 16, ahead of meetings scheduled for October 29 and 30, asked dealers about the effect of those larger operations on liquidity and their capacity to intermediate flows, and requested their expected auction sizes through fiscal year 2029.

Rates have moved during the run-up. Treasury's daily par yield curve put the 10-year yield at 4.94% on October 30, down from 5.24% on October 1, while the 20-year eased to 5.34% from 5.64% and the 30-year to 5.31% from 5.61%. On October 28, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferring a 1/4 percentage point increase, while its implementation note directs the Desk, when appropriate, to increase System Open Market Account holdings through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves. Market structure is shifting too: under the SEC's Treasury clearing rule, eligible cash market transactions must be centrally cleared by December 31, 2026, and eligible repo transactions by June 30, 2027.

A refunding statement can reprice yields, rate futures and the stocks tied to bond trading in a single session. The free Knowledge is Power guide from Stock Preachers shows how to line up a policy headline with what the charts are showing, and it comes with The Roadmap market reports at stockpreachers.com.

In other industry developments and happenings in the market this week include:

CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME)

CME Group reported on October 21 third-quarter revenue of $1.7 billion and diluted earnings per share of $2.89, or $3.02 on an adjusted basis, with average daily volume reaching a third-quarter record of 29.4 million contracts. Its October 2 volume release showed third-quarter interest rate ADV up 13% to 15.1 million contracts and U.S. Treasury futures and options ADV up 25% to 9.4 million contracts, while BrokerTec U.S. Treasury average daily notional value rose 29% to $115 billion in September. CME plans to launch CME Securities Clearing on December 7, pending all necessary regulatory approvals, to clear U.S. Treasury cash and repo transactions.

"With U.S. debt reaching a record $40 trillion and the clearing mandate months away, the U.S. Treasury market is undergoing the biggest transformation in a generation," said Terry Duffy, CME Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, in September.

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: TW)

Tradeweb reported on October 29 third-quarter revenues of $584.5 million, up 14.9%, and average daily volume of $3.2 trillion, up 22.4%. Rates revenues increased 18.2% to $324.5 million, and U.S. government bond ADV was up 28.0%, with the company noting that September 2026 was the most active month for U.S. government bond trading on its platform this year. During the quarter it completed what it called the first landmark real-time transaction involving tokenized U.S. Treasuries on Tradeweb with the Canton Network, and in October it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Trumid Holdings, LLC for a total purchase price of approximately $1.97 billion.

"Against a backdrop of rising Treasury yields, shifting central bank policy and geopolitical uncertainty, we continued helping clients access liquidity and manage risk while investing in opportunities to drive our long-term growth," said Billy Hult, CEO of Tradeweb.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MKTX)

MarketAxess reported on October 23 third-quarter total revenues of $210.4 million, up 1%, and diluted earnings per share of $1.53, or $1.86 excluding notable items. U.S. government bond ADV rose 15% to $26,614 million, and total rates commission revenue increased 34% to $8.9 million, which the company said was primarily driven by higher U.S. Treasury volumes and improved fee per million. Under a July 29 merger agreement, Intercontinental Exchange is to acquire MarketAxess for $167.00 per share in cash; the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act was terminated early on October 21, and completion remains subject to MarketAxess stockholder approval, required regulatory approvals and other closing conditions.

"Overall, we continue to make great progress across our strategic priorities and remain committed to delivering innovative solutions that enhance the trading experience for our clients," said Chris Concannon, CEO of MarketAxess.

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE)

Intercontinental Exchange reported on October 29 third-quarter net revenues of $2.8 billion, up 15%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.02, up 18%. In its Exchanges segment, net revenues from Financials, which include interest rates and other financial futures and options, rose 37% to $190 million. Based on the early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period, ICE now expects the MarketAxess merger to close in the first quarter of 2027, ahead of the first-half 2027 timeline it announced in July. In February, ICE said that its ICE Clear Credit U.S. Treasury clearing service had received SEC approval and was operationally live for cash transactions, with repo clearing then planned to go live in the fourth quarter.

"Our customers come to ICE to manage risk, to connect with one another, to access our data and to run critical parts of their business on our platforms," said Jeff Sprecher, ICE Chair & Chief Executive Officer.

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BNY)

BNY reported on October 15 third-quarter total revenue of $5.7 billion, up 12%, and diluted earnings per share of $2.34, up 24%. Revenue in its Clearance and Collateral Management line of business rose 12% to $592 million, which the company said primarily reflects higher collateral balances and clearance volumes, and investment services fees in that line increased 17% to $464 million. Average deposits were $311 billion, up 4% year-over-year, and net interest income increased 15% to $1,423 million.

"Our performance in the quarter once again highlights the resilience and durability of our business model against the backdrop of an overall constructive but uneven operating environment," said Robin Vince, Chief Executive Officer of BNY.

Wednesday's statement will show whether Treasury keeps its auction sizes and long-end buybacks where they are or changes them, and the year-end clearing deadline is now weeks away. Learn to read how bond yields and the stocks tied to Treasury trading respond, with the free Stock Preachers guide, plus The Roadmap market reports, at stockpreachers.com.

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This article is independent news commentary. Stock Preachers is wholly owned and operated by Market Equities Limited ("MEL"), a company incorporated under the laws of Ireland. MEL has not been paid by any company mentioned in this article. MEL and its owners, operators, directors, and affiliates do not currently own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article, but reserve the right to, and will, buy and sell shares of those companies at any time without further notice. Treasury yields are Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for October 1 and October 30, 2026, and debt management references are drawn from Treasury's refunding documents of August 3 and August 5, 2026, its August 19, 2026 buyback announcement, its November 2026 primary dealer meeting agenda released October 16, 2026, and Treasury auction data for October 2026. Federal Reserve references are from the FOMC statement and implementation note of October 28, 2026, clearing deadlines are from the SEC's Treasury clearing implementation page, Treasury's November 2026 refunding decisions had not been released at the time of writing, and future debt management decisions may differ from those described. Information is drawn from company news releases and filings, government and industry data, published reporting and third-party data believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing in securities carries risk, including the loss of some or all of your investment. This document is governed by the laws of Ireland.

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