Triathlon Group: Geopolitical tensions reshape Swedish manufacturing despite strengthened outlook

Swedish manufacturing companies are entering 2026 with growth expectations, but rising geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs and increasing customer demands are reshaping how they operate, pushing a shift from global to more regional value chains. This is one of the main findings in the latest Manufacturing Report from advisory firm Triathlon Group, based on a survey of Sweden's 100 largest manufacturing companies.

GOTHENBURG, Sweden, April 21, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- "The outlook is strengthening, but the world has become more uncertain. Companies predict growth, but at the same time are becoming more cautious," says Fredrik Wadsten, CEO of Triathlon Group.

A majority of companies expect increased order intake (61%) and revenues (66%) in 2026, along with improving operating margins. At the same time, 23% expect to reduce headcount, reflecting a continued focus on efficiency. Growth expectations are even stronger for 2027.

Six out of ten companies say they are already affected by global uncertainty and tariffs. Around half have taken or are planning short-term measures, while 63% are working on or planning longer-term structural changes to their value chains. Regionalisation is taking place gradually, with nearly half of companies yet to make operational changes, while others are making incremental adjustments such as rerouting flows or building inventories. This suggests that more significant shifts still lie ahead.

"Companies with a strong regional presence and flexible supply chains will have an advantage. Firms that rely heavily on global, cost-optimised value chains risk higher costs and greater restructuring needs," says Fredrik Wadsten.

Since 2015, Triathlon Group has published the Manufacturing Report, covering Sweden's 100 largest manufacturing companies. Manufacturing accounts for around 15% of Sweden's GDP, making it the country's largest industrial contributor. The 2026 survey was conducted through telephone interviews during weeks 10-12.

Key facts
60% of companies report being affected by geopolitical risks and trade tariffs
Around 50% have taken or are planning short-term actions
63% are working on or planning longer-term structural changes to value chains
61% expect increased order intake in 2026
66% expect higher revenues
23% plan to reduce headcount
Growth expectations are stronger for 2027

About the Manufacturing Report
Based on a survey and analysis of Sweden's 100 largest manufacturing companies
Senior executives were interviewed by telephone during March
Response rate: 70%
Published twice a year
Issued since 2015

For comments or to access the report, please contact: Fredrik Wadsten, CEO and Senior Partner, Triathlon Group, +46 (0)70-318 21 20 | [email protected]

Triathlon Group

Triathlon Group is a professional services firm and a leading actor in business performance improvement, supporting Nordic multinational clients to strengthen international competitiveness. Based on specific expertise, Triathlon delivers lasting improvements with its clients. Triathlon Group is an independent, partner-owned firm headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden. www.triathlon.se

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