UNICA Sugarcane Crush - 2016-17 Season 2H August: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results
Advance Estimates Suggest a 2H August Cane Crush of 40.24 Million MT in Brazil's Center-South;
- Analysts see Cane ATR at 145.49 kg/mt; Sugar Mix Likely at 47.79% -
SAO PAULO, Sept. 13, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --
Platts Survey of Analysts (2H August)
- Cane crush: 40.24 million metric tons (mt)
- Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 145.49 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
- Sugar production: 2.669 million metric tons (mt)
- Total ethanol production: 1,807 million liters (ltrs)
- Hydrous ethanol production: 1,051 million ltrs
- Anhydrous ethanol production: 756 million ltrs
- Sugar mix: 47.79%
- Ethanol mix: 52.21%
The amount of sugarcane crushed in Brazil's Center-South (CS) region in the second half (2H) of August is expected to be 40.24 million mt, down 15% or 7.24 million mt compared with the same period in 2015, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts showed Tuesday.
Industry association UNICA is expected to release the official production figures for the key Center-South region on Thursday.
The wider range of analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned from 38.8 million mt to 44.4 million mt, while expectations for the ATR spanned from 144 kg/mt of cane to 147.7 kg/mt.
If the cane crush matches expectations, the cumulative volume of sugarcane crushed since the 2016-17 season began April 1 would rise to 395.5 million mt, up 7% compared with the same period last season.
The year-on-year decrease in the amount of cane crushed was attributed to an average of three days of rain, which disrupted harvesting in many producing regions, according to analysts.
Analysts at Platts Kingsman, an agricultural analytics unit of S&P Global Platts, expect a cane crush of 44.4 million mt and an ATR of 146 kg/mt of cane, while the percentage of cane directed towards the production of sugar is expected to be 48.6%.
That would result in the production of 3 million mt of sugar and 1.99 billion liters of ethanol. Of this, 1.18 billion liters would be hydrous and 808 million liters of anhydrous.
The survey expects the cane's total recoverable sugar (ATR) to be 145.49 kg/mt of cane, down 0.2% from a year earlier, but up 2.65 kg/mt from 1H August.
The percentage of cane that will be directed towards producing sugar is likely to be 47.79% in 2H August, compared with 41.78% at same time last year, the survey showed.
Sugar production is expected to total 2.67 million mt, down 6% year on year, while ethanol output is expected to come in at nearly 1.81 billion liters, according to the survey. Hydrous ethanol is expected to account for 58% of the total.
In Parana state, one of the sugarcane producers in CS, the amount of cane crushed in 2H August fell 38% year on year at 1.88 million mt, according to local industry association Alcopar. It was also down 39% from 1H August. Alcopar said the drop in output was due to rain.
The ATR in the state in 2H rose 3.19 kg/mt of cane compared with 1H to 146 kg/mt, Alcopar said.
The higher ATR is likely to be due to sugar and ethanol produced in 2H August from cane crushed in the last two or three days of 1H August. This is usually balanced out when cane is crushed for the entire fortnight, but in 2H August, rain caused harvesting to stop. An impact on the ATR is likely to be seen in the production figures of 1H September -- which could be stable or depending on the volume of rain be lower than in 2H August, analysts at Platts Kingsman said.
Ethanol sales (anhydrous + hydrous) to the domestic market are expected to have reached roughly 1.15 billion liters, compared with 1.28 billion liters at same time last year, analysts at Kingsman forecast.
Hydrous ethanol is used in flex-fuel vehicles, while the country mandates anhydrous is blended with gasoline at a ratio of 27%.
| CS Brazil Cane Production Data – 2H August, 2016 (as of Sep 1) |
||||||
| Category |
Unit |
Survey |
Platts Kingsman |
UNICA (2015-16) |
Y-O-Y* |
var. Vol. y-o-y* |
| Cane crush |
(million mt) |
40.24 |
44.40 |
47.48 |
-15.2% |
-7.24 |
| ATR |
(kg/mt cane) |
145.49 |
146.00 |
145.84 |
-0.2% |
-0.35 |
| Sugar output |
(thousand mt) |
2,669 |
3,002 |
2,850 |
-6.4% |
-181.44 |
| Ethanol total |
(million ltr) |
1,807 |
1,991 |
2,309 |
-21.7% |
-501.78 |
| Hydrous output |
(million ltr) |
1,051 |
1,183 |
1,387 |
-24.2% |
-335.67 |
| Anhydrous output |
(million ltr) |
756 |
808 |
919 |
-17.7% |
-163.11 |
| Sugar Mix |
(%) |
47.79 |
48.60 |
41.78 |
||
| Ethanol Mix |
(%) |
52.21 |
51.40 |
58.22 |
||
| CS Brazil Cane Production Data -- 1H August, 2016 (as of August 16) |
||||||
| Category |
Unit |
Survey |
Platts Kingsman |
UNICA |
||
| Cane crush |
(million mt) |
46.03 |
46.10 |
44.83 |
||
| ATR |
(kg/mt cane) |
142.11 |
142.00 |
142.84 |
||
| Sugar output |
(thousand mt) |
3,018 |
3,019 |
2,967 |
||
| Ethanol total |
(million ltr) |
1,980 |
1,978 |
1,930 |
||
| Hydrous output |
(million ltr) |
1,122 |
1,128 |
1,118 |
||
| Anhydrous output |
(million ltr) |
859 |
850 |
819 |
||
| Sugar Mix |
(%) |
48.36 |
48.40 |
48.63 |
||
| Ethanol Mix |
(%) |
51.64 |
51.60 |
51.37 |
||
| Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results--Unica Sugarcane Crush, Platts Kingsman, UNICA. |
||||||
| *Year-on-year change compares Platts Survey against UNICA's figures for 2015-16 |
||||||
Visit the S&P Global Platts and Platts Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.
Contact Platts Communications to arrange interviews with Platts Kingsman sugar and ethanol analysts: Claudiu Covrig, Maria Nunez, and Alessandra Rosete; and Platt's sugar price assessments specialists: David Elward and Nicolle Monteiro de Castro. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.
Editor's Note: In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil's Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.
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