UNICA Sugarcane Crush - 2016-17 Season 2H July: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results

Advance Estimates Suggest a 2H July Cane Crush of 49.7 Million MT in Brazil's Center-South

- Analysts see Cane ATR at 136.76 kg/mt; Sugar Mix Likely at 48.04% -

News provided by

S&P Global Platts

Aug 12, 2016, 01:42 ET

SAO PAULO, Aug. 12, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --

Platts Survey of Analysts (2H July)

  • Cane crush: 49.70 million metric tons (mt)
  • Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 136.76 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
  • Sugar production: 3.109 million metric tons (mt)
  • Total ethanol production: 2,072 million liters (ltrs)
  • Hydrous ethanol production: 1,190 million ltrs
  • Anhydrous ethanol production: 883 million ltrs
  • Sugar mix: 48.04%
  • Ethanol mix: 51.97%

The amount of sugarcane crushed in Brazil's Center-South (CS) region in the second half of July (2H) is expected to be 49.7 million metric tons (mt), practically the same as during 2H July 2015 and up 6% from first half of July, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts showed Thursday.
In 2H July there were 16 days of crushing, while in 1H there was one day fewer. The weather was mostly dry in the region, which permitted the mills to crush at full capacity.

Industry association UNICA will release the official numbers on Monday.

The range of analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned from 48.5 million mt to 50.6 million mt, while expectations for ATR spanned from 135.9 kg/mt of cane to 138 kg/mt. 

Analysts at Platts Kingsman, an agricultural analytics unit of S&P Global Platts, forecast a cane crush of 49 million mt and ATR at 138 kg/mt of cane.

The ratio of cane to produce sugar is expected at 48.4%, while the balance was directed to ethanol.

Claudiu Covrig, sugar analyst with the Platts Kingsman unit of S&P Global Platts, said ATR is expected to further recover to the peak of the crop, sometime in 1H September, due to dry weather. Sugar mix also is expected to go higher as it is encouraged by higher ATR and also because sugar continues paying better than ethanol.

In Parana state, the ATR in 2H July rose by 6.22 kg/mt of cane from 1H July and was up 5.19 kg from a year ago to 137.66 kg/mt.   

Taking into account the poll of analysts for cane crush in 2H July, the cumulative cane crushed in the first four months of the season (April-July) would total 311 million mt, up 13% compared with same period last year. If confirmed, this amount would reach a record for the period. The previous record was during the 2010-11 season, when nearly 298 million mt were crushed during the first four months of the season.   

The survey showed that the percentage of cane allocated to sugar production is likely to be 48.04% in 2H July, down four percentage points from 2H July 2015 and up from 47.68% during the previous two weeks.

The ATR was likely 136.76 kg/mt of cane, up 3.51 kg/mt from the previous two weeks and up 1.92 kg/mt from a year earlier.

Sugar production is expected to total 3.1 million mt in 2H July, up 11% year on year, the survey showed.

Hydrous ethanol output is expected to come in at 1.19 billion liters, down 9% year on year. This amount should represent 57% of total ethanol produced. Anhydrous ethanol production, which is mostly mixed with gasoline at 27%, is expected to reach 883 million liters, down 1% from a year ago.

Anhydrous production has been favored rather than hydrous amid increased demand in the domestic market as a consequence of a drop in hydrous fuel consumption and higher prices at pump this year, according to Platts Kingsman analysis.      

Platts Kingsman forecasts call for anhydrous fuel demand in the country this year to reach 11.4 billion liters, up 5% year on year.

CS Brazil Cane Production Data –  2H July, 2016 (as of Aug 1)


Category        

Unit        

Survey   

Platts Kingsman 

UNICA (2015-16)   

Y-O-Y*

var. Vol. y-o-y*

Cane crush

(million mt)    

49.70

49.00

49.67

0.1%

0.03

ATR

(kg/mt cane)

136.76

138.00

134.84

1.4%

1.92

Sugar output    

(thousand mt)    

3,109

3,118

2,805

10.8%

304.10

Ethanol total   

(million ltr)   

2,072

2,084

2,202

-5.9%

-129.76

Hydrous output  

(million ltr)   

1,190

1,176

1,308

-9.1%

-118.42

Anhydrous output

(million ltr)   

883

908

892

-1.0%

-9.33

Sugar Mix

(%)

48.04

48.40

43.96


Ethanol Mix     

(%)

51.97

51.60

56.04


















CS Brazil Cane Production Data -- 1H July, 2016 (as of July 16)


Category        

Unit        

Survey   

Platts Kingsman 

UNICA


Cane crush

(million mt)    

47.62

48.20

46.74


ATR

(kg/mt cane)

133.04

134.00

133.25


Sugar output    

(thousand mt)    

2,865

2,940

2,830


Ethanol total   

(million ltr)   

1,956

2,020

1,912


Hydrous output  

(million ltr)   

1,122

1,180

1,064


Anhydrous output

(million ltr)   

834

840

848


Sugar Mix

(%)

47.48

47.70

47.68


Ethanol Mix     

(%)

52.52

52.30

52.32



Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results--Unica Sugarcane Crush, Platts Kingsman, UNICA.   

*Year-on-year change compares Platts Survey against UNICA's figures for 2015-16

Visit the S&P Global Platts and Platts Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.

Contact Platts Communications to arrange interviews with Platts Kingsman sugar and ethanol analysts:  Claudiu Covrig, Maria Nunez, and Alessandra Rosete; and Platt's sugar price assessments specialists: David Elward, Nicolle Monteiro de Castro and Darren Stetzel. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.

Editor's Note: In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil's Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.

Media Contacts:
Global, Americas, Asia: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, [email protected]

About S&P Global Platts
At S&P Global Platts, we provide the insights; you make better informed trading and business decisions with confidence. We're the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets. Customers in over 150 countries look to our expertise in news, pricing and analytics to deliver greater transparency and efficiency to markets. S&P Global Platts coverage includes oil and gas, power, petrochemicals, metals, agriculture and shipping.

S&P Global Platts is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.platts.com.

SOURCE S&P Global Platts

Related Links

http://www.platts.com