US Tariffs Cloud ASEAN+3 Outlook; Regional Integration Gains Urgency

SINGAPORE, July 23, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) today forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow at 3.8 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, according to the latest quarterly update of its flagship ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO).

Reflecting heightened global uncertainties, particularly the evolving US tariff measures, the growth forecasts represent a downward revision from AMRO's April projections of 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026 which did not include the impact of then newly announced US tariffs.

"Encouragingly, the ASEAN+3 region enters this period of global trade turbulence from a position of relative strength and resilience," said AMRO Chief Economist Dong He. "Most regional policymakers have acted early to cushion the impact of the trade shock, and policy space remains available for further support if needed."

Inflation in the region continues to moderate, despite a temporary spike in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions. The region's financial markets have also shown resilience, with regional currencies generally appreciating against the US dollar amid growing market concerns over US policy uncertainty.

The economic outlook for ASEAN+3 remains clouded by significant uncertainties, with escalating US tariffs posing the most salient risk. Uneven progress in tariff negotiations and the potential expansion of tariffs to additional products could further disrupt trade activities and weigh on growth for the region.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions add an additional layer of complexity, while a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in the US and Europe, along with tighter global financial conditions from prolonged high US interest rates could further dampen growth prospects.

"In a world that is increasingly being reshaped by fragmentation, deeper regional integration is both urgent and necessary," Dr. He noted. "By strengthening regional cooperation while maintaining openness to the world and standing firm on rules-based multilateralism, ASEAN+3 can build resilience against external shocks and create new growth opportunities."

Detailed analysis can be found in the July quarterly update of AMRO's AREO report. The next update is scheduled for release in October 2025.

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About AMRO

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) is an international organization established to contribute toward securing macroeconomic and financial stability of the ASEAN+3 region, comprising 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea. AMRO's mandate is to conduct macroeconomic surveillance, support regional financial arrangements, and provide technical assistance to the members. In addition, AMRO also serves as a regional knowledge hub and provides support to ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.

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SOURCE ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)