U.S. VEHICLE SALES UNLIKELY TO REGAIN PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS THIS DECADE, MOBILITY GLOBAL FORECAST SHOWS

DETROIT, Sept. 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Mobility Global's latest forecast, U.S. light-vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.1 million units in 2026 and only 16.4 million by the end of the decade, remaining well below the roughly 17 million annual sales levels that defined the market before the pandemic. Analysts speaking last week at a Mobility Global media briefing said affordability remains the single biggest challenge facing consumers, contributing to a fundamentally different market environment.

The discussion came at a pivotal moment for the industry. Automakers are navigating geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and shifting trade policies, even as consumers wrestle with the persistent problem of what they can afford.

The U.S. automotive market has remained depressed since the pandemic with some of that due to supply chain shortages. But right now, the main reason Mobility Global doesn't see the market returning to those previous levels and remaining below its potential is the affordability issue. "We don't see the U.S. returning to pre-pandemic levels of volumes," said Peter Nagle, Associate Director for Americas Demand Forecasting. "Obviously, there is something constraining the market from those 17-million-unit thresholds that we routinely hit back in, say, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019."

A myriad of factors have reshaped the automotive landscape in recent years.  The past year has brought some significant changes to the U.S. regulatory and incentive framework — and in the compressed span of automotive timeframes. As emissions and fuel economy rules loosened, automakers rewrote product plans almost overnight.

"The resulting wave of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) cancellations may leave some suppliers wary of chasing future BEV programs," said Eric Anderson, Associate Director for Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecasting. Even so, Mobility Global expects BEV assembly in North America to once again surpass 1 million units in 2027, according to its latest forecast.

The internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids, however, the analysts said, are expected to remain central to the market as consumers continue to weigh cost, convenience and lifestyle in choosing their next car. Mobility Global forecasts North American assembly of full hybrid electric vehicles (FHEVs) to surpass 3 million units in 2027 — a 25% annual increase — with nearly a third of all North American light vehicle assembly expected to be FHEV by 2030.

The briefing also turned to China's growing influence on the global automotive landscape. Analysts explored how conditions in China's domestic market could shape automaker strategies worldwide. They pointed to a broader industry move toward regionalization and de-globalization.

"The auto industry is moving toward three major regional islands," said Joe Langley, Director of Research and Analysis. "North America, Europe and Asia, and automakers will increasingly have to build where they sell and design for the regions they serve. The difficult part is doing that while costs continue to rise."
And there is no longer one global recipe for success, Langley added.

Mobility Global, a provider of automotive data, intelligence, and forecasting, has launched FAST (Forecasting and Simulation Tool) to help identify and assess changes shaping the mobility market. With more than 100 years of history, Mobility Global separated from S&P Global on July 1 and now operates as an independent company focused on the mobility sector.

Discussing the tool's role, Kristen Balasia, Senior Vice President of Mobility Global Planning Solutions, noted that organizations are operating in an increasingly uncertain environment. "We are seeing firsthand that certainty is becoming increasingly rare, and the ability to navigate uncertainty with speed is becoming the most valuable competitive advantage in this market," she said.

Contacts:
Media
Naz Fathi
External Communications Director
Contact us: [email protected]

Mobility Global (NYSE: MBGL) is a leading provider of automotive data, providing critical data and analytics across the full vehicle lifecycle. Its portfolio of trusted brands and products includes CARFAX, automotiveMastermind, Polk Automotive Solutions, and Market Scan, supporting the world's major automotive manufacturers, suppliers, dealer groups, media, financial institutions, and consumers with data, forecasts, insights, technology, and innovation. For more, visit mobilityglobal.com. 

Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains "forward-looking statements," as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements, which express management's current views concerning future events, trends, contingencies or results, as well as our full-year 2026 guidance, appear at various places in this press release and use words like "anticipate," "assume," "believe," "continue," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "future," "intend," "plan," "potential," "predict," "project," "strategy," "target" and similar terms, and future or conditional tense verbs like "could," "may," "might," "should," "will" and "would." For example, management may use forward-looking statements when addressing topics such as: the outcome of contingencies; future actions by regulators; changes in the business strategies and methods of generating revenue of the Company; and the development and performance of the Company's services and products; the expected impact of acquisitions and dispositions; the Company's effective tax rates; the Company's cost structure, dividend policy, cash flows or liquidity.

Forward-looking statements are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements. The Company and its subsidiaries operate in a dynamic business environment in which new risks emerge frequently. Accordingly, the Company cautions readers not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances arising after the date on which it is made, except as required by applicable law. Further information about the Company's businesses, including information about factors that could materially affect its results of operations and financial condition, is contained in the Company's filings with the SEC, including the section titled "Risk Factors" of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, filed with the SEC on August 7, 2026.

SOURCE Mobility Global, Inc.