While U.S. HIV Infections Have Fallen, They Are Rising Among Latinos -- New Paper Documents a "Cascading Disaster"

Johns Hopkins researchers publish new findings ahead of AIDS 2026, warning that worsening HIV incidence, eroding data infrastructure and growing barriers to HIV services risk deepening a crisis already at a critical inflection point

WASHINGTON, June 25, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- From 2010 to 2022, new HIV infections in the United States declined 19% overall. Among Latinos, they rose 12%. In 2023, new HIV diagnoses among Latinos jumped 8% in a single year — the largest increase of any racial or ethnic group in the country. These trends are not new; they are the accelerating result of more than a decade of structural neglect.

These are the central findings of a new paper published in the journal AIDS, released as the global HIV community prepares for the 26th International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2026) in Rio de Janeiro, July 26–31. "The Price of Invisibility: A Cascading Disaster in the US Latino HIV Epidemic," by researchers at the Center for Latino Adolescent and Family Health (CLAFH) at the Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing, argues the U.S. cannot credibly advance a goal of ending its HIV epidemic while allowing Latino communities to remain invisible in the national response.

"What we are documenting is not a temporary setback. It is a cascading disaster driven by compounding failures in policy, access, representation, and accountability. Ending HIV is not a zero-sum proposition: closing the widening gaps in Latino communities will accelerate progress for everyone, while inaction jeopardizes national progress."

— Vincent Guilamo-Ramos, PhD, RN,  Lead Author and Director, Center for Latino Adolescent and Family Health, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

KEY FINDINGS

• Worsening HIV incidence: New HIV infections rose 12% among Latinos from 2010 to 2022, even as they fell 19% nationally. Among Latino men who have sex with men (MSM), infections grew 24% — compared to a 15% decrease among MSM nationwide. For Latino MSM aged 25–34, the increase was 95%. By 2022, Latino MSM had the single highest number of new HIV infections of any group across all transmission categories and racial/ethnic groups. The 2023 surveillance data show an 8% rise in Latino diagnoses, the steepest increase of any racial or ethnic group.
• Persistent prevention and treatment gaps: Latino PrEP coverage has never reached parity with the general population — and progress made before the COVID-19 pandemic has nearly been erased. Separately, the nation's largest pharmacy benefits manager is refusing to reimburse lenacapavir, a newly approved long-acting PrEP, at its more than $28,000 annual cost, limiting access for Latinos who stand to benefit most. About one in six Latinos living with HIV remains unaware of their status. In 2023, more than a quarter of Latinos with diagnosed HIV received no HIV care, and more than a third lacked a suppressed viral load.
• Growing access barriers: Proposed Medicaid cuts threaten coverage for the nearly two-thirds of Latinos with HIV who depend on public insurance or the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program. In Florida, which accounts for more than 1 in 10 new Latino HIV diagnoses nationally, a recent reduction in AIDS Drug Assistance Program eligibility thresholds puts an estimated 16,000 people at risk of losing access to antiretroviral therapy. In California, Illinois, Colorado, and Minnesota — collectively accounting for more than 1 in 4 new Latino HIV diagnoses — proposed federal cuts threaten $600 million funding primarily allocated to HIV and sexually transmitted infection programming.
• Weakening data and research infrastructure: Delays in federal HIV surveillance reporting, attributed to workforce reductions, mean that the most current HIV incidence estimates remain unavailable — a development the authors warn will erode accountability and worsen the "invisibility equals inaction" dynamic at the heart of the Latino HIV crisis.

"Invisibility has a price. When data are delayed, when Latino communities are deprioritized, and when HIV policy is shaped without sustained attention to Latino realities, preventable infections continue and opportunities for national progress are lost."

— Vincent Guilamo-Ramos, PhD, RN

CALLS TO ACTION

The paper identifies concrete steps for policymakers, public health officials, healthcare organizations, the private sector, and researchers:

• Protect funding for HIV surveillance and prevention programs serving Latino communities
• Preserve Medicaid and Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program coverage, and restore cuts where needed
• Expand culturally and linguistically tailored Latino HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services
• Ensure reimbursement access to long-acting PrEP, including lenacapavir, for Latinos with inadequate or no insurance
• Increase Latino representation across the health workforce, public health leadership, and research
• Continue collecting and transparently reporting HIV surveillance data — including equity metrics — and reestablish such capacity where it has been reduced

Read the full paper: https://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/fulltext/2026/08000/the_price_of_invisibility__a_cascading_disaster_in.3.aspx

About CLAFH: For more than two decades, the Center for Latino Adolescent and Family Health (CLAFH), has generated research, training, and interventions to advance the health and well-being of Latino adolescents, families, and communities across the United States. CLAFH closely partners with the Institute for Policy Solutions (IPS) at Johns Hopkins University to advance evidence-based policy, research, and action to eliminate health inequities, starting with those furthest from opportunity. Visit clafh.org to learn more.

SOURCE The Institute for Policy Solutions at Johns Hopkins School of Nursing