2015 Existing Home Sales Expected To Pick Up Where 2014 Left Off According To Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast™
January Existing Home Sales to Come in at 5.06 Million Units (SAAR)
IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Jan. 26, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Auction.com, LLC, the nation's leading online real estate marketplace, has released its January Auction.com Real Estate NowcastTM which projects that existing home sales for the month will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of 4.90 and 5.21 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.06 million. This suggests that January sales will be up from one year ago and essentially flat compared to December sales.
"There's nothing pointing towards a quantum leap in January home sales," said Auction.com Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "Demand continues to be tepid, reflected by the relatively weak search activity that we're tracking in Google Trends data. And inventory levels of available homes continue to fall, which means that even if demand picks up, there might not be enough homes to meet it."
On January 23rd, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) released its existing home sales data for December, reporting that home sales increased to 5.04 million units following November's unexpectedly weak performance. One month prior, the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast predicted that existing home sales for December would be 4.98 million, providing the market with an accurate picture of December sales activity well in advance of publicly available sales data. According to the latest Auction.com Nowcast, the housing market is likely to level out this month, rather than repeat December's impressive month-on-month improvement.
"The existing home sales pace of the past several months shows that housing has shaken off the weakness it experienced in 2013 and early 2014," said Auction.com Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "But difficult mortgage conditions, stagnant wages and lingering wariness about homeownership benefits have kept annual sales right around 5 million units, where they've been for the past few years."
Muoio also cited potential fallout from weaker economies in the oil producing states, particularly Texas, as a concern for the housing market in 2015. "White-hot sales growth in Texas has well outpaced U.S. existing home sales growth over the past three years, pushing the Texas share of U.S. existing home sales up to a near-record 6.2 percent," he said. "Low oil will cool the Texas economy and likely with it home sales within the state, exerting a drag on U.S. sales in 2015."
About Auction.com's Real Estate Nowcast
The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, the Nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast model has proven highly accurate over the course of 2014.
| Month |
Reported Existing (in millions) |
Auction.com Point (SAR in millions) |
Auction.com (SAR in millions) |
| January 2014 |
4.62 |
4.91 |
4.72 – 5.11 |
| February 2014 |
4.60 |
4.72 |
4.54 – 4.91 |
| March 2014 |
4.59 |
4.77 |
4.59 – 4.96 |
| April 2014 |
4.66 |
4.83 |
4.64 – 5.02 |
| May 2014 |
4.91 |
4.88 |
4.69 – 5.07 |
| June 2014 |
5.03 |
5.08 |
4.88 – 5.28 |
| July 2014 |
5.14 |
5.17 |
4.97 – 5.37 |
| August 2014 |
5.05 |
5.23 |
5.03 – 5.44 |
| September 2014 |
5.17 |
5.10 |
4.90 – 5.30 |
| October 2014 |
5.26 |
5.18 |
4.98 – 5.38 |
| November 2014 |
4.93 |
5.25 |
5.05 – 5.46 |
| December 2014 |
5.04 |
4.98 |
4.79 – 5.17 |
| January 2015 |
TBD |
5.06 |
4.90 – 5.21 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Auction.com
Auction.com will update its Nowcast as fresh data provides additional signals for current home sales activity. For more information about Nowcast and access to the latest data, click here.
About Auction.com:
Auction.com, LLC, is the nation's leading online real estate marketplace. Founded in 2007, the company has sold over $26 billion in residential and commercial real estate assets. Auction.com has over 900 employees and headquarters in Irvine and Silicon Valley, California as well as offices in Austin and Plano, Texas, Atlanta, Denver, New York and Miami. Visit www.auction.com for more information.
SOURCE Auction.com, LLC
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