A new AI model can help make floods more predictable

MIAMI, Sept. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Florida International University researchers have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model that could transform how water managers predict and respond to flooding in Florida's vast canal system.

The breakthrough, detailed in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, offers near-instant simulations of flood scenarios that currently take nearly an hour to generate.

It then goes further, suggesting actionable strategies.

"Accuracy is obviously very important to us, because overestimation of water stages can cause false alarms and panic while underestimation can result in unexpected and dangerous flooding events," said Giri Narasimhan, professor in FIU's Knight Foundation School of Computing and Information Sciences. "We were able to create a tool that provides water managers with the information to either eliminate a flood event or drastically reduce it."

Florida's 2,175-mile network of interconnected canals plays a critical role in flood control, particularly when hurricanes threaten the state. Before storms make landfall, water managers strategically lower canal levels to absorb incoming rainfall and storm surge. But extreme weather is notoriously unpredictable. Sudden shifts in wind, tides, or rainfall can overwhelm existing models, leaving little time to act.

Traditional physics-based models replicate canal systems in meticulous detail, accounting for factors from water flow to gate operations. While precise, these simulations require enormous computational power and can take close to an hour to complete. In fast-moving storm conditions, delays can hinder timely decision-making.

The FIU model, by contrast, runs through complex or worst-case scenarios in seconds. Using nearly a decade of historical environmental and weather data collected by the South Florida Water Management District, the AI system was trained to recognize how rainfall, tides, groundwater and storm surge interact across the region. Historic storms – including Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Sandy (2012) and Tropical Storm Isaias (2020) – were used to fine-tune the model's reliability. Researchers tested it on the Miami River, which runs through downtown Miami and drains into Biscayne Bay.

Unlike traditional models that provide broad predictions, FIU's AI system can break down the specific drivers of flooding. For example, it can estimate how much water rise is due to rainfall versus tidal surge. In addition, it can suggest how adjusting specific canal gates or pumps could mitigate the flooding.

"This is where AI-powered models come in handy," Narasimhan said. "They allow for hundreds of scenarios to be run in a fraction of the time."

The project is part of FIU's broader effort to make AI a trustworthy tool in real-world, high-stakes scenarios. Jayantha Obeysekera — study co-author and director of the Sea Level Solutions Center in the FIU Institute of Environment, who previously served as the chief modeler at the South Florida Water Management District — said the technology has potential beyond immediate flood control.

"The model also holds a lot of potential as a tool to help agencies make longer-term decisions," he said. "It could guide 20- or 30-year infrastructure investments, such as whether to build new pumps, reservoirs or levees by screening potential solutions efficiently."

About FIU:
Florida International University is a Top 50, preeminent public research university with 55,000 students from all 50 states and more than 140 countries, as well as an alumni network of more than 340,000. Located in the global city of Miami, the university offers more than 200 degree programs at the undergraduate, graduate and professional levels, including medicine and law. FIU faculty are leaders in their fields and include National Academy members, Fulbright Scholars, and MacArthur Genius Fellows. A Carnegie R1 institution, FIU drives impactful research in environmental resilience, health, and technology and innovation. Home to the Wall of Wind and Institute of Environment, FIU stands at the forefront of discovery and innovation. With a focus on student success, economic mobility and community engagement, FIU is redefining what it means to be a public research university.

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SOURCE Florida International University