AI Adoption in US Business Is Growing -- But Not as Fast as You Think
BELMONT, Mass., June 16, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group (DRG) today released its United States Personal Devices Market: History and Forecast 1975-2030, which includes DRG's forecast for AI adoption in US business and the growth of AI-capable devices. The report will be available for download at http://www.danielresearchgroup.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=%2fm5URQm%2bPp0%3d&tabid=122&mid=522&forcedownload=true.
The Real State of AI Adoption
A lot of companies talk about AI. Fewer are actually using it. Based on the US Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey, DRG estimates only 18.4% of US businesses will be actively using AI to produce goods or services in 2026 — up from 11.2% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2023. Real growth, but far below what industry headlines suggest. Most activity today is concentrated in large companies and tech-heavy industries. Small and mid-size businesses — the majority of US firms — are still watching and waiting.
What Is Driving Adoption
AI is the one factor in our model that pushes all four demand drivers in a positive direction at the same time. It brings new buyers in (higher penetration), gives existing owners a reason to add a second device (higher density), and shortens how long people wait before upgrading (faster replacement). In 2026, that mostly shows up in new AI-capable PCs and smartphones. By 2028 to 2030, it shifts to something bigger: companies building out fleets of devices to run AI locally and support workflows that used to require a person at a desk.
What Is Slowing It Down
The obstacles are just as real as the drivers. Building AI into a business costs money, takes time, and requires people who know what they are doing. Many companies are still trying to figure out if the return on investment is worth it. There is also growing concern about privacy, energy use, and jobs. And underneath all of that is a deeper unease about trusting machines to make decisions — one that shows up in every era of new technology. DRG's forecast accounts for all of it.
United States Total AI Personal Device Unit Shipments (Millions)
Category |
Form Factor |
2025 |
2026 |
'26 AGR |
2030 |
CAGR '25-'30 |
||
Desktop PCs |
Desktop PCs |
16.6 |
22.8 |
37.3 % |
47.8 |
23.5 % |
||
Mobile PCs |
Traditional |
20.7 |
28.4 |
37.0 % |
60.1 |
23.7 % |
||
Convertible |
2.6 |
4.1 |
59.1 % |
16.0 |
44.0 % |
|||
Total Mobile PCs |
23.3 |
32.5 |
39.5 % |
76.1 |
26.7 % |
|||
Total PCs |
39.9 |
55.3 |
38.6 % |
123.9 |
25.4 % |
|||
Tablets |
Detachable |
14.0 |
20.5 |
46.2 % |
60.0 |
33.7 % |
||
Slate |
17.8 |
24.8 |
38.9 % |
56.8 |
26.1 % |
|||
Total Tablets |
31.9 |
45.3 |
42.1 % |
116.8 |
29.6 % |
|||
Total PCs & Tablets |
71.8 |
100.6 |
40.2 % |
240.7 |
||||
Mobile Phones |
Standard |
1.7 |
1.4 |
-21.1 % |
5.1 |
24.3 % |
||
Smartphone |
22.0 |
30.4 |
38.3 % |
69.2 |
25.8 % |
|||
Total Mobile Phones |
23.7 |
31.8 |
34.0 % |
74.3 |
25.7 % |
|||
TOTAL PERSONAL DEVICES |
95.5 |
132.4 |
38.6 % |
315.0 |
27.0 % |
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a Massachusetts-based technology market research and forecasting firm founded in 1984. We specialize in custom market models and demand forecasts for technology companies. Custom forecast models and project inquiries are welcome.
Steve Daniel, President | Daniel Research Group
(617) 484-6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com
SOURCE Daniel Research Group
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