US Personal Device Demand Dips in 2026, Returns to Growth Through 2030
BELMONT, Mass., June 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group (DRG) today released its United States Personal Devices Market: History and Forecast 1975-2030. The report will be available for download at www.DanielResearchGroup.com.
What Drives Device Demand?
DRG forecasts device demand using four variables: how many households and businesses are potential buyers (Total Available Market), what share already own a device (Penetration Percent), how many devices each owner has (Density), and how long they keep a device before replacing it (Replacement Rate). Shifts in any one of these change the forecast — and currently, all four are being pushed and pulled in different directions.
Why 2026 Is a Down Year
A global memory chip shortage and tariff-related cost increases are pushing device prices up 10-15% this year. Higher prices mean fewer households and businesses buy for the first time (lower penetration), current owners hold onto devices longer (slower replacement), and people think twice about buying a second or third unit (lower density). Total shipments are forecast to fall 2.2% to 238 million units. Smartphones take the biggest hit, down 5.2% to 126.9 million. PCs are off a modest 0.7% to 68.7 million, held up partly by businesses finishing their Windows 10 to 11 upgrades before Microsoft's deadline. Tablets are the exception, up 8.2% to 38.8 million.
Why Recovery Starts in 2027
Demand does not disappear when people delay a purchase — it builds up. By 2027, a large installed base of aging devices starts driving a replacement wave. The number of US households keeps growing, somewhat offsetting the decrease in number of businesses. New AI use cases on PCs and phones give people a real reason to upgrade sooner rather than later. By 2030, total shipments reach 255 million units. The long-term growth rate is modest at under 1% a year — but it is steady, and it is real.
United States Personal Device Unit Shipments (Millions)
Category |
Form |
2025 |
2026 |
'26 |
2030 |
CAGR |
Desktop PCs |
Desktop PC |
15.1 |
13.9 |
-7.8 % |
14.2 |
-1.2 % |
Mobile PCs |
Traditional |
47.1 |
48.1 |
2.0 % |
51.2 |
1.7 % |
Convertible |
7.0 |
6.8 |
-3.4 % |
6.7 |
-0.9 % |
|
Total PCs |
69.2 |
68.7 |
-0.7 % |
72.1 |
0.8 % |
|
Tablets |
Detachable |
21.0 |
22.9 |
8.7 % |
26.0 |
4.3 % |
Slate |
14.9 |
16.0 |
7.4 % |
14.7 |
-0.3 % |
|
Total Tablets |
35.9 |
38.8 |
8.2 % |
40.6 |
2.5 % |
|
Total PCs & |
105.1 |
107.6 |
2.4 % |
112.7 |
||
Mobile Phones |
Standard |
4.3 |
3.6 |
-17.5 % |
3.7 |
-2.9 % |
Smartphone |
133.9 |
126.9 |
-5.2 % |
138.5 |
0.7 % |
|
Total |
138.2 |
130.5 |
-5.6 % |
142.2 |
0.6 % |
|
TOTAL DEVICES |
243.3 |
238.0 |
-2.2 % |
255.0 |
0.9 % |
About the Report
The United States Personal Devices Market: History and Forecast 1975-2030 covers PCs, tablets, and smartphones by product, form factor, and segment (consumer and enterprise). It will be available for download at www.DanielResearchGroup.com. Custom forecast models and project inquiries are welcome.
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a Massachusetts-based technology market research and forecasting firm founded in 1984. We specialize in custom market models and demand forecasts for technology companies
Steve Daniel, President | Daniel Research Group
(617) 484-6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com
SOURCE Daniel Research Group
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