AI could reshape where banks make money. Market leadership positions will decide who keeps it--Bain & Company

AI could further disrupt banking economics, but banks that set their competitive strategy first, then focus AI behind it, can protect profits and keep their share.

NEW YORK, Nov. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- AI is set to dramatically reshape where and how banks compete for customers and the competitive landscape for banking groups over the next five years, Bain & Company finds in a new brief released today.

Bain's Future of Banking report argues that AI is more than a tool for productivity gains. It can also extend market leadership positions by helping banks build value propositions that win share faster. That is because rapidly changing AI advances are shifting which banking businesses stay attractive, which competitive differentiators endure, and which customer relationships are worth defending.

The stakes are high for market leaders defending their positions and the challengers looking to take customer share. Return on equity (ROE) at the world's largest banks has not recovered since the global financial crisis. And Bain's analysis shows market leadership matters: among the top 30 banks by 2025 year-end assets, banks with number 1 or close number 2 positions in their business lines earn a 15% ROE, versus 9% for those with weaker positions.

Using AI to reinforce or build leadership positions is central to restoring returns, more so than efficiency gains alone. Banks have long relied on inertia to slow customers from comparing offers or switching providers. But AI is poised to lower barriers to entry, making switching frictionless. Banks will need to reassess where to defend their leadership, says Bain.

The brief identifies four "hard truths" for an AI-led future:

• Profit pools built on inattention and inertia are the most exposed.
• Efficiency gains will be table stakes but may accrue to customers, not shareholders.
• Trust must be earned and converted into value others can't match.
• Being large everywhere will matter less than being difficult to displace somewhere.

Bain recommends banks consider three strategic responses: 1) build and attack where AI makes new propositions possible; 2) defend and deepen where profit pools stay structurally attractive; and 3) rethink participation where economics depend on friction AI could remove.

"The AI-enabled customer cuts both ways for banks, particularly as agents remove friction from switching," said Peter Stumbles, partner and global head of Bain's Financial Services practice. "The opportunity to further personalize offerings and enable customers is real, but so is the threat of deposit churn and customer defection. A far larger contestable market than before means yesterday's incumbent strategy won't be defensible today. Leadership in chosen markets, with a winning proposition with chosen customer segments, will matter more than ever."

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Notes to Editors
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SOURCE Bain & Company