ALG Expects Automakers to Reach $46 Billion in Revenue in October

Average transaction prices likely to rise 1.1 percent

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Nov 01, 2018, 07:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Nov. 1, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $46 billion for the month of October, up 0.4 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $172 million in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spend is projected to decline 2.8 percent year over year.

"With ATP on the rise and incentive spending on the decline, market transaction data are moving in a positive direction," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "ATP and incentives are also key metrics influencing used vehicle values, which continue to perform at near record levels."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,901 in October, up 1.1 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit dropped $103 to $3,609. The ratio of incentive spend to ATP is expected to be 10.6 percent, down 3.8 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	Oct. 2018 Forecast	Oct. 2017	Sept. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$51,642	$53,643	$51,742	-3.7%	-0.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$57,927	$62,527	$56,723	-7.4%	2.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,965	$33,724	$34,622	3.7%	1.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$37,905	$36,226	$37,307	4.6%	1.6%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$37,570	$37,451	$37,382	0.3%	0.5%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$28,845	$27,588	$28,580	4.6%	0.9%
Hyundai	$22,484	$22,917	$22,260	-1.9%	1.0%
Kia	$22,589	$21,863	$22,579	3.3%	0.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,331	$27,168	$27,394	0.6%	-0.2%
Subaru	$29,425	$28,118	$28,564	4.6%	3.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$32,349	$32,092	$32,045	0.8%	0.9%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$34,262	$36,547	$35,208	-6.3%	-2.7%
Industry	$33,901	$33,537	$33,533	1.1%	1.1%


Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	Oct. 2018 Forecast	Oct. 2017	Sept. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,316	$5,289	$5,695	0.5%	-6.7%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$5,633	$4,964	$5,943	13.5%	-5.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,434	$4,572	$4,600	-3.0%	-3.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,390	$4,289	$4,757	2.4%	-7.7%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$4,440	$4,910	$4,451	-9.6%	-0.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$2,018	$1,935	$2,036	4.3%	-0.9%
Hyundai	$2,772	$3,002	$2,869	-7.7%	-3.4%
Kia	$3,646	$3,639	$3,792	0.2%	-3.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$4,074	$4,036	$4,468	0.9%	-8.8%
Subaru	$1,203	$1,067	$1,252	12.7%	-3.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,438	$2,522	$2,645	-3.3%	-7.8%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,675	$3,519	$3,861	4.4%	-4.8%
Industry	$3,609	$3,712	$3,804	-2.8%	-5.1%


Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	Oct. 2018 Forecast	Oct. 2017	Sept. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	10.3%	9.9%	11.0%	4.4%	-6.5%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	9.7%	7.9%	10.5%	22.5%	-7.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	12.7%	13.6%	13.3%	-6.5%	-4.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	11.6%	11.8%	12.8%	-2.2%	-9.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	11.8%	13.1%	11.9%	-9.8%	-0.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	7.0%	7.0%	7.1%	-0.2%	-1.8%
Hyundai	12.3%	13.1%	12.9%	-5.9%	-4.4%
Kia	16.1%	16.6%	16.8%	-3.0%	-3.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	14.9%	14.9%	16.3%	0.3%	-8.6%
Subaru	4.1%	3.8%	4.4%	7.7%	-6.7%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	7.5%	7.9%	8.3%	-4.1%	-8.7%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	10.7%	9.6%	11.0%	11.4%	-2.2%
Industry	10.6%	11.1%	11.3%	-3.8%	-6.2%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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SOURCE ALG