Among Those Absolutely Certain to Vote, 43% Would Vote Republican and 41% Democrat

Over one-third of Independents voting Republican versus one-quarter voting Democrat

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Sep 28, 2010, 07:05 ET

NEW YORK, Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- The primaries are over and the sprint is on for the final six weeks of campaigning before Election Day 2010. If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, two in five registered voters (40%) would vote for the Democratic candidate and 36% would vote for the Republican candidate with one in five (19%) not at all sure.

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MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE
	Total
	%
Democratic candidate	40
Republican candidate	36
Other	5
Not at all sure	19

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,620 adults surveyed online between September 14 and 20, 2010 by Harris Interactive.

The parties are mostly holding their bases with voters, as 84% of Republicans are voting for their party's candidate and 81% of Democrats say they are voting for their candidate. However, Independents are favoring Republicans, as 35% would vote for that party's candidate for Congress and 23% would vote for the Democratic candidate, while one-quarter of Independents (27%) are still not at all sure for whom they would vote.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE
	Political Party
	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	2	81	23
Republican candidate	84	4	35
Other	2	1	14
Not at all sure	12	14	27

Among those registered voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote this November, 43% would vote for the Republican candidate, 41% for the Democratic candidate and 12% are not at all sure. The Republicans have a larger advantage when it comes to interest in the election. Almost half (48%) of those registered voters who are extremely or very interested in the election say they would vote for the Republican candidate while 38% would vote for the Democratic candidate.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE
	Voting Intention
	Absolutely certain will vote	Absolutely/Very Certain will Vote	Probably Will Vote
	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	41	40	40
Republican candidate	43	41	38
Other	4	4	5
Not at all sure	12	14	17

Adding in a Tea Party Candidate

If there is a third candidate in the race, representing the Tea Party, Democrats can breathe a small sigh of relief. Among registered voters, 41% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 23% would vote for the Republican, 13% would vote for the Tea Party candidate and 23% are still not at all sure. Among those voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, 42% would vote Democrat, 26% would vote Republican, 17% would vote for the Tea Party candidate and 15% are not at all sure.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE
	Total
	%
Democratic candidate	41
Republican candidate	23
Tea Party candidate	13
Not at all sure	23

Looking at it by party, Democrats continue to vote for their party's candidate, as 80% would vote for the Democrat in the race. Republicans, Independents and Tea Party supporters all split their votes. Among Republican voters, three in five (59%) would vote Republican and one in five (21%) would vote for the Tea Party candidate, with 18% not at all sure. Among Independents, 27% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 21% would vote for the Tea Party candidate, 18% would vote for the Republican candidate and over one-third (35%) are not at all sure for whom they would vote. It is just as divided for Tea Party supporters with 13% voting for the Democratic candidate, 36% voting Republican, 31% voting for the Tea Party candidate and 20% who say they are still not at all sure.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE
	Political Party
	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	2	80	27
Republican candidate	59	3	18
Tea Party candidate	21	2	21
Not at all sure	18	14	35

So What?

Currently, Americans don't think Congress is doing a good job. Almost nine in ten (87%) give Congress negative ratings while just 13% give it positive ones. What remains to be seen on November 2nd is if voters are mainly unhappy with Democrats - after all, they are the ones in power, or with all incumbents. Seeing so many incumbents defeated in primaries, as well as seeing establishment candidates lose, as well, makes it seem as if these midterm elections are a complete game-changer. Of course, since Democrats are in power, they may suffer more losses, but it would not be a surprise to see unexpected Republicans lose, too. The morning of November 3rd should provide a very interesting post-mortem to this campaign season.

TABLE 1 MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE "If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate?" Base: U.S. adults registered to vote
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter	Member
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	40	2	81	23	16	6
Republican candidate	36	84	4	35	66	82
Other	5	2	1	14	6	6
Not at all sure	19	12	14	27	12	7
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 1B MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE – VOTING INTEREST AND INTENTION "If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate?" Base: U.S. adults registered to vote
	Total	Voting Interest			Voting Intention
	Total	Extremely/ Very Interested (NET)	Interested	Not Interested (NET)	Absolutely certain will vote	Absolutely/Very Certain will Vote	Probably Will Vote	Will Not Vote (NET)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	40	38	39	34	41	40	40	43
Republican candidate	36	48	43	12	43	41	38	10
Other	5	4	4	9	4	4	5	6
Not at all sure	19	10	14	45	12	14	17	41
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2 MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE "If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today and all three were an option, who would you vote for?" Base: U.S. adults registered to vote
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter	Member
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	41	2	80	27	13	7
Republican candidate	23	59	3	18	36	27
Tea Party candidate	13	21	2	21	31	55
Not at all sure	23	18	14	35	20	11
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2B MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE – VOTING INTEREST AND INTENTION "If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today and all three were an option, who would you vote for?" Base: U.S. adults registered to vote
	Total	Voting Interest			Voting Intention
	Total	Extremely/ Very Interested NET)	Interested	Not Interested (NET)	Absolutely Certain to vote	Absolutely/ Very Certain will Vote	Probably Will Vote	Will Not Vote (NET)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	41	40	40	30	42	41	41	37
Republican candidate	23	29	26	12	26	25	24	10
Tea Party candidate	13	20	18	*	17	16	14	2
Not at all sure	23	11	16	58	15	17	20	51
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 3 CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING "How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?" Base: All U.S. adults
	Total	Political Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	13	4	24	7
Excellent	2	1	5	1
Pretty good	10	4	19	6
NEGATIVE	87	96	76	93
Only fair	38	25	45	39
Poor	49	71	31	54
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4 CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING – TREND "How would you rate the overall job the Congress is doing?" Base: All U.S. adults
	TREND	Positive*	Negative**
	TREND	%	%
2010	September	13	87
	August	15	85
	June	14	86
	May	15	85
	April	16	84
	March	10	90
	Jan.	16	84
2009	Dec.	17	83
	Oct.	16	84
	Sept.	19	81
	Aug.	22	78
	June	25	75
	March	29	71
2008	October	10	86
	August	18	77
	June	13	83
	February	20	76
2007	December	17	79
	October	20	77
	April	27	69
	February	33	62
2006	September	24	73
	May	18	80
	February	25	71
	January	25	72
Positive = excellent or pretty good. *Negative = only fair or poor. Note: Prior to March, 2009, this question was asked by telephone.

TABLE 5 Voting Likelihood "An election for the House of Representatives will be held on November 2nd. How certain are you that you will vote?" Base: All U.S. adults
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter	Member
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Will Vote	82	91	85	80	93	98
Absolutely certain I will vote	56	68	59	51	71	83
Very certain I will vote	13	13	13	13	13	8
I probably will vote	13	10	13	16	10	7
Will Not Vote	11	7	9	11	5	2
I probably will not vote	6	4	6	6	3	-
I am certain I will not vote	5	3	4	5	2	2
Not sure if I will vote	7	3	6	9	2	*
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding "*" indicates less than 0.5%; "- " indicates no response

TABLE 6 ELECTION INTEREST "How interested are you in the House of Representatives elections this year?" Base: All U.S. adults
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter	Member
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Interested	65	78	64	63	83	95
Extremely interested	27	38	25	23	42	58
Somewhat interested	19	23	19	19	22	23
Interested	19	17	20	21	19	14
Not Interested	35	22	36	37	17	5
Somewhat interested	22	15	24	24	14	5
Not interested at all	13	7	12	13	3	*
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 7 TEA PARTY FAMILIARITY "How familiar are you with the Tea Party Movement?" Base: All U.S. adults
	March 2010	May 2010	June 2010	August 2010	September 2010
	%	%	%	%	%
Familiar (NET)	76	85	86	86	87
Very familiar	15	22	20	20	23
Somewhat familiar	39	44	48	44	45
Not that familiar	22	19	18	22	19
Not familiar (NET)	24	15	14	14	13
Not at all familiar	16	10	11	11	11
Never heard of	8	5	4	3	2
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 8 TEA PARTY SUPPORT "Do you support or oppose the Tea Party Movement?" [Asked of all adults excluding those who are "not at all familiar" or "have never heard of" the Tea Party Movement] Base: All U.S. adults
	March 2010	May 2010	June 2010	Aug 2010	Sept 2010	Political Party
	March 2010	May 2010	June 2010	Aug 2010	Sept 2010	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Support (NET)	33	38	37	38	39	68	18	43
Strongly support	14	18	16	15	15	28	7	16
Somewhat support	19	20	22	23	23	40	11	27
Oppose (NET)	23	30	31	29	31	6	52	28
Somewhat oppose	9	11	11	11	14	5	21	15
Strongly oppose	14	19	19	18	17	1	32	14
Not at all sure	20	17	17	19	18	16	17	20
Not asked/Not familiar at all/Never heard of	24	15	14	14	13	11	13	9
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 9 TEA PARTY MEMBER "Would you describe yourself as a member of the Tea Party?" [Asked of all adults excluding those who are "not at all familiar" or "have never heard of" the Tea Party Movement] Base: All U.S. adults
	May 2010	June 2010	Aug 2010	Sept 2010	Political Party
	May 2010	June 2010	Aug 2010	Sept 2010	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes	10	8	7	6	13	2	7
No	75	77	79	80	77	85	84
Not asked/Not familiar at all/ Never heard of	15	14	14	13	11	13	9
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between September 14 to 20, 2010 among 2,620 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J38847

Q1215, 1220, 1225, 1230, 1235, 1240, 1245, 1250

The Harris Poll® #112, September 28, 2010

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

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