Borrowers Must Prove Their CRE Loans Are Worth Saving, Finds Mercury Capital Partners White Paper
As the 10-year Treasury hits a 24-year high, capital markets executive Andrew Shook offers a framework for understanding how lenders sort maturing CRE loans.
TAMPA, Fla., Oct. 21, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, commercial real estate borrowers need to show lenders that their loans face a bridgeable liquidity gap, not insolvency, advised an executive from Mercury Capital Partners.
Mercury's Andrew Shook, a veteran capital markets advisor, lays out the case for being proactive in a new white paper titled "Know What You Own: CRE Credit at the End of Extend-and-Pretend."
Contrary to narratives about the "avalanche" of maturities coming due, Shook observes, volume is not the issue. Instead, lenders are focused on sorting loans worth saving from those headed for a write-down, using property-level data and realistic underwriting.
At today's rates, "most loans written in 2021 and 2022 cannot refinance at par, yet only some of them are true losses," Shook writes. "The line between a liquidity gap that is bridgeable by rescue capital and a solvency gap that requires a write-down runs asset by asset."
At today's coupons, Shook estimates, the debt-service coverage tests used by lenders cap new loan proceeds at roughly 51% to 59% of current value in the five property types modeled. In his model, a typical 2021-vintage multifamily loan faces a refinance gap of about 39% of its balance. Meanwhile, extensions fell from 41% of expected maturities in 2024-25 to 21% in 2025-26, according to First American.
Shook presents a framework borrowers and lenders can use to classify maturing CRE loans based on factors related to liquidity, solvency, cash flow, collateral value, extension economics and capital treatment.
The full white paper:
KNOW WHAT YOU OWN: CRE CREDIT AT THE END OF EXTEND-AND-PRETEND
Shook's related advisory column "Cash-In Refis Are Back. Here's How Multifamily GPs Can Pivot": https://mercurycp.com/insights/multifamily-cash-in-refis/
Connecting and advising borrowers and lenders
Since 2010, real estate technology and services leader CREModels has developed a nationwide network of borrower and lender contacts who rely on the company's analytical expertise and AI-accelerated solutions for financial modeling, asset management, development, loan underwriting, managed services and more.
CREModels executives founded Tampa-based Mercury as an independent commercial real estate debt advisory firm. "Mercury evaluates each transaction against the requirements, constraints and objectives of a broad range of lending sources," explained Mercury cofounder and CREModels CEO Mike Harris. "It allows us to connect our clients to lenders whose balance sheets, underwriting standards and risk tolerances are the strongest fit for a particular asset, geography or capital need."
Beyond senior debt placement, Mercury advises borrowers on loan restructurings, special servicing resolutions and other workout situations.
Shook joined Mercury earlier this year, bringing decades of experience in CRE lending, capital markets and institutional finance at names such as Bank of America, HSBC Securities, A10 Capital and Lima One Capital. "Andrew knows how credit committees think," said Mercury cofounder and CREModels COO Mike Jaworski. "At CREModels, we're already running the numbers for a lot of these owners. With Andrew at Mercury, we can take them the rest of the way, from the analysis to the ideal lender."
Concluded Shook: "The borrowers who come through this market in good shape will be the ones who know their numbers cold and act early, rather than waiting for their lender to decide for them. Our role is to help owners recapitalize or refinance on their own terms."
About Mercury Capital Partners
Mercury Capital Partners, a division of Mercury Capital, Inc., is an independent commercial real estate debt advisory firm focused on senior debt placement and borrower advisory. With no balance sheet or product to push, the firm is solely aligned with securing the best financing available. Senior partners lead every engagement, combining deep capital markets expertise, proprietary lender relationships and technology-driven underwriting to run competitive processes across banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. Mercury advises owners, developers, and investors across select U.S. markets and property types.
Mercury Capital, Inc. is a Florida Real Estate Corporation (#CQ1060611).
About CREModels
Founded in 2010 and based in St. Petersburg, Florida, CREModels provides financial modeling, underwriting, asset management and transaction services to more than 1,000 institutional and professional commercial real estate investors nationwide, on deals ranging from $1 million to more than $2 billion. Its CRE Suite platform gives owners, developers and lenders AI-accelerated tools for underwriting, acquisitions, development, capital raising and portfolio reporting.
Media Contacts:
Mercury Capital Partners
Andrew Shook
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (201) 252-7487
CREModels
Mike Jaworski
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (248) 318-4898
SOURCE Mercury Capital, Inc.
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