Business Executives' Optimism About U.S. Economy Sinks as Recession Fears Loom, AICPA and CIMA Survey Finds

• Survey takers with a positive view of the economy fell from 47% last quarter to 27%
• More than half expect U.S. will be in recession by year-end
• Hiring outlook tightens

NEW YORK, June 5, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Business executives' view of the economy continued to sour amid recession fears and uncertainty about tariff impacts, according to the second-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. The survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other CPAs in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.

The high hopes business executives held about the economy immediately after the November election have ebbed dramatically in the past two quarters. Only 27% now hold a favorable view of the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, down from 47% last quarter and 67% at the end of 2024.

Continued inflation and the chaotic implementation of tariffs have fueled concerns about a recession. One in five business executives believe the United States is already in a business cycle contraction, while another 34% say they expect one by the end of the year. Of those expecting a recession this year or next, 75% predict it will be moderate to severe.

Two out of three business executives said their companies were experiencing moderate to significant uncertainty in business planning due to changing tariff schedules, up from 49% last quarter. Almost a third (32%) said they were increasing prices in response. Thirty-one percent said they were exploring different supply chain options. And a little more than a quarter (26%) said they were reducing operating costs.

"We're seeing a lot of revised expectations: delayed hiring and investment, pared-back expansion plans, lowered key performance indicators," said Tom Hood, CPA, CGMA, CITP, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA. "The data shows a clear pivot from optimism to caution. Businesses are bracing for volatility, and the uncertainty around tariffs is amplifying that shift."

The AICPA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, the U.S. Department of Labor's May employment report, scheduled for release tomorrow, looks back on the previous month's hiring trends.

Other key findings of the survey:

• Hiring shows signs of tightening. Fourteen percent of business executives say they are looking to hire new employees immediately, down from 20 percent last quarter. Twelve percent said they had too many employees, up from 8% last quarter.
• Projected revenue growth for the next 12 months (1%) is at its most anemic level since the third quarter of 2020, when many businesses were curtailed by the coronavirus pandemic. Profit expectations, meanwhile, swung negative this quarter to -0.3%, down from +1.7% last quarter.
• Only 37% of business executives are favorable about their own organization's prospects over the next 12 months, down from 50% last quarter.
• Survey takers who expect their businesses to expand over the next 12 months dropped significantly from 57% to 43%, quarter over quarter.
• "Domestic economic conditions" was the top concern cited this quarter, displacing inflation. It was No. 4 on the list last quarter.

Methodology

The second-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from May 5-27, 2025, and included 328 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountants (CGMAs) who hold leadership positions, such as chief financial officer or controller, in their companies. The overall margin of error is less than 3 percentage points. A copy of the report can be found on aicpa-cima.com.

About the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, AICPA, and CIMA

The Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (the Association) advances the reputation, employability, and quality of CPAs, CGMA designation holders, and accounting and financial professionals globally. Founded in 2017 by the AICPA and CIMA, it represents 580,000 AICPA and CIMA members, candidates, and registrants in more than 150 countries and territories, advocating for the public interest and business sustainability on current and emerging issues. 

SOURCE AICPA & CIMA