Business Executives' Outlook on U.S. Economy Fades Amid Tariff and Inflation Worries, AICPA & CIMA Survey Finds

• Survey takers with a positive view of the economy fell from 67% last quarter to 47%
• Eighty-five percent said uncertainty surrounding tariffs had impacted business planning to some degree
• Hiring picture remains stable, despite concern about costs and availability of talent

NEW YORK, March 6, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A post-election boost in business executives' optimism about the U.S. economy has moderated, declining from a more than three-year high of 67% last quarter to 47% this quarter, the AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey found. The shift reflects growing concerns about inflation and tariffs, according to the survey, which polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers, and other certified public accountants in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.

The survey was conducted before the Trump Administration imposed tariffs this week on Canada, Mexico, and China, but respondents were asked their general views about unspecified tariffs if they were put in place. Fifty-nine percent indicated that tariffs would have a negative effect on their businesses, while 85% said uncertainty surrounding the subject had influenced their business planning to some degree—nearly one in five (18%) described that impact as significant.

Inflation remained the top concern for business executives, followed by issues related to staffing—employee and benefit costs (No. 2), availability of skilled personnel (No. 3), and staff turnover (No. 10). Domestic political leadership, which was absent from last quarter's top 10 concerns, reemerged at No. 6.

"There are a lot of warning signs right now for business executives, particularly around inflation, payroll costs and consumer confidence, with tariffs adding another layer of uncertainty," said Tom Hood, AICPA & CIMA's executive vice president for business engagement and growth. "That said, it's important to recognize that economic optimism remains higher than at any point since mid-2021, aside from last quarter's notable increase. Additionally, expansion plans have held steady from the previous quarter."

The AICPA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, the U.S. Department of Labor's February employment report, scheduled for release tomorrow, looks back on the previous month's hiring trends.

Other key findings of the survey:

• Business executives who said they were optimistic about their own organization's outlook over the next 12 months fell from 53% to 50%, quarter over quarter.
• Revenue and profit expectations for the next 12 months both eased from last quarter's big increases. Revenue growth is now expected to be 3%, down from a 3.3% projection last quarter. Profit projections are now 2%, down from 2.2% last quarter.
• Survey takers who expect their businesses to expand over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 57%.
• Some 39 percent of business executives said they had too few employees., a one percent increase from last quarter. One-in-five said they were ready to hire immediately, unchanged from last quarter.

Methodology

The first-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from Feb. 4-26, 2025, and included 305 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountants (CGMAs) who hold leadership positions, such as chief financial officer or controller, in their companies. The overall margin of error is less than 3 percentage points. A copy of the report can be found on aicpa-cima.com.

About AICPA & CIMA, together as the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants   

AICPA & CIMA, together as the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (the Association), advance the global accounting and finance profession through our work on behalf of 597,000 AICPA and CIMA members, candidates and registrants in 188 countries and territories. Together, we are the worldwide leader on public and management accounting issues through advocacy, support for the CPA license, the CGMA designation and specialized credentials, professional education and thought leadership. We build trust by empowering our members, candidates and registrants with the knowledge and opportunities to be leaders in broadening prosperity for a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient future.

SOURCE AICPA & CIMA