Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index(TM) Reveals Disappointing February, Potentially Dampened by Record Snowfalls

MINNEAPOLIS, March 10 /PRNewswire/ -- Results from the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management show the U.S. economy essentially flat over the first two months of the year, with a February decline offsetting the modest gains previously reported for January. With the index number this month enhanced to include adjustments for monthly workdays as well as seasonality, February fell 0.7 percent, following January's increase of 0.6 percent. This flat performance follows a robust 2.8 percent gain in December.

The decline in February's PCI prompts a lowering of expectations for the Federal Reserve's forthcoming Industrial Production report. Based on data through January, a forecast for February's monthly growth of Industrial Production to be released on March 15 would have been 1.0 percent.  With the new February PCI data now available, that Industrial Production forecast drops to 0.6 percent.

The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data from over the road trucking tracked by Ceridian Corp., a global provider of electronic and stored value card payment services and human resources solutions. The February release was enhanced from January's release to adjust for monthly workdays, creating less volatile month to month changes in the index. The complete February report and updated index white paper are available at www.ceridianindex.com.

"February was disappointing, but the geographic pattern underlying the index suggests this was due in large part to extreme snowfalls during the month," said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and chief economist for the PCI. "As we indicated with the release of our January report, we still need much stronger growth in the PCI to get Americans back to work. To sustain at least a 4 percent GDP number for the first quarter, the March PCI has to be significantly stronger at over 1 percent growth. That number will be very important. It will reveal where the economy is headed and whether March truly is a catch-up month after a snowy February."

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index also provides data for the nine Census regions. Not surprisingly, the areas most hit by heavy snowfall – the East North Central and Mid Atlantic regions – experienced declines of -4.1 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively. In most parts of the country not directly affected by February's snowfall, the PCI grew, up 2.7 percent in the West North Central region (e.g. Minnesota), 2.1 percent in the Pacific region (e.g. California), and 2.6 percent in the West South Central region (e.g. Texas). East-West traffic in the Mountain region was down -0.8 percent, possibly a ripple effect of snowstorms in the east.

The index is built by analyzing Ceridian's electronic card payment data that captures the location and volume of diesel fuel being purchased by over the road trucking operations. This provides a detailed picture of the movement of products across the United States. "Goods have to be transported for the economy to grow, so when snowstorms bog down that flow, it is reflected in our index and in the overall U.S. economy," said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index analyst for Ceridian.

Additional information on the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is available at www.ceridianindex.com or by contacting [email protected]. The site offers further detail such as index graphs and downloadable data, video commentary, information on how the data is obtained, and the opportunity to receive updates on the latest information via e-mail and RSS feeds. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index will be publicly released on or near the 10th day of each month.

About Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. Working with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates, Ceridian provides the index monthly and also offers companies access to more detailed fuel-use information. Ceridian is a global business services company providing electronic and stored value card payment services and human resources solutions. UCLA Anderson School of Management is perennially ranked among top-tier business schools in the world. Charles River Associates is a leading global consulting firm that offers economic, financial, and business management expertise to organizations around the world.

For additional information on the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, please visit www.ceridianindex.com.

SOURCE Ceridian Corporation