Consumer Edge Shows the Restaurant Industry Is Fracturing: Diners Are Either Hunting for Deals or Splurging

As Consumers Trade Down to Value-Oriented Fast Food or Trade Up for High-Quality Experiences, Mid-Tier Restaurants With Less Clear Positioning Are Getting Left Behind

NEW YORK, June 17, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Consumer Edge, the leading provider of global consumer and healthcare data-driven insights, released its Restaurant 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, revealing that U.S. restaurant spending is becoming increasingly fragmented, with consumers trading down to affordable, value-driven dining options or trading up for premium experiences they feel are worth the splurge. Mid-tier restaurants that don't fit into one of those two categories are losing ground.

"Consumers are spending differently in 2026 as they reprioritize how to spend their food budget amid a shifting economic environment. The brands winning right now have made a clear case for their value, including compelling bundles, reliable portions and affordable treats, that keeps guests coming back," said Michael Gunther, SVP, Research & Market Intelligence, Consumer Edge. "For restaurant leaders, the question isn't just where spend is going, it's whether their pricing, menu and strategy are built for consumers that are actually walking through the door today."

Coffee and snack chains like Starbucks, Dunkin', Dutch Bros and 7 Brew are driving the industry's fastest growth, up nearly 6 percent year-to-date, as consumers substitute full meals out with coffee, refreshers and snacks that feel like an affordable treat. Meanwhile, pizza is 2026's biggest loser, as health-conscious diners move away from large, shareable orders toward lighter options, with brands like Papa John's and Pizza Hut seeing softer trends so far this year.

Other key findings from Consumer Edge's mid-year analysis include:

• Value perception is driving traffic. McDonald's and Burger King's aggressive value campaigns and meal deals have re-attracted price-sensitive diners, while Chipotle and Cava have won on menu innovation and quality at a fair price. On the other side, brands stuck in the middle — not affordable enough to compete with quick-service restaurants but lacking the quality to justify spending more — are losing ground.
• Rising gas prices are squeezing budget-conscious diners and the brands that serve them. Hardee's, Golden Corral, Arby's, Waffle House and Little Caesar's, which skew heavily toward lower-income and car-dependent customers, face outsized risk as fuel costs rise and discretionary dining budgets shrink.
• Age is shaping the dining divide. 25–34 year olds are showing the weakest spend growth across both full and limited service, while consumers 65 and older are proving the most resilient, suggesting that budget pressure is hitting younger diners hardest.
• The changes in how consumers eat out look structural, not temporary. Beyond near-term budget pressure, trends such as increased cooking at home, demand for healthier options and the rise of snack-based occasions, point to lasting shifts in how consumers spend their restaurant dollars.

Consumer Edge's full Restaurant 2026 Mid-Year Outlook can be found here.

About Consumer Edge
Consumer Edge is a leading data and insights-as-a-service (IaaS) company specializing in the global consumer, B2B, and healthcare economies. Founded in 2009 by CEO Bill Pecoriello, Consumer Edge delivers real-time, transaction-based intelligence enriched by deep industry expertise. Its solutions equip corporate and investment leaders with best-in-class tools for faster, more confident strategic decision-making, offering granular insights and performance comparisons across products, brands, sub-industries, and industries. Consumer Edge's unique capabilities turn complex data into clear, actionable insights that help clients eliminate uncertainty, benchmark performance, and make high-impact decisions.

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SOURCE Consumer Edge