ECRI Institute Study in Health Affairs Finds 75% Accuracy in Forecasting New Health Technologies

PLYMOUTH MEETING, Pa., Feb. 2, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Just how reliable are forecasts about impacts of new, potentially high-cost healthcare technologies still in research and development? The answer is elusive because so few forecasting systems have been evaluated. ECRI Institute's retrospective case review of its own forecasts on major technologies found that 75% of early predictions were still sound when the technologies reached routine clinical care.

ECRI Institute's case study, published in the February 2015 "Biomedical Innovations" themed issue of Health Affairs, compared very early predictions with updated ones made after the technologies entered clinical care. ECRI Institute President and CEO Jeffrey C. Lerner, PhD, one of the study authors, will present the research findings in a Health Affairs Briefing at the W Hotel in Washington, DC, on February 5.

Health technology forecasting is intended to provide reliable predictions and insights about possible impacts of new technologies before they are ready to be used in clinical care. ECRI Institute's article addresses three questions central to forecasting's usefulness:

1. Are early forecasts sufficiently accurate to help providers acquire the most promising technology and payers to set effective coverage policies?
2. What variables contribute to inaccurate forecasts?
3. How can forecasters manage the variables to improve accuracy?

The article analyzed and compared forecasts published between 2007 and 2010 by ECRI Institute on four technologies, and updates published in late 2013 and 2014. Topics included single-room proton beam radiation therapy for various cancers; digital breast tomosynthesis imaging technology for breast cancer screening; transcatheter aortic valve replacement for serious heart valve disease; and minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery for various cancers.

"We examined revised ECRI forecasts to identify inaccuracies in the earlier forecasts and explored why they occurred," said Dr. Lerner. "We found that frequent revision of forecasts could improve accuracy, especially for complex technologies whose eventual use signals a paradigm shift in clinical care for a disease. We were surprised that so few forecasters examine their own work, and we hope this initial self-evaluation leads to increasingly robust, independent efforts."

ECRI found that 15 of 20 early predictions about the four technologies were accurate when compared with the updated forecasts. The inaccuracies pertained to two technologies that had more time-sensitive variables to consider.

Co-authors on the Health Affairs article were Diane C. Robertson, director of health technology assessment information services at ECRI Institute, and Sara M. Goldstein, former health policy research analyst at ECRI Institute.

Health Affairs subscribers can access ECRI Institute's article, "Case Studies on Forecasting for Innovative Technologies: Frequent Revisions Improve Accuracy," from their website at http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/34/2/311.abstract on Monday, February 2, 2015, at 4:00 p.m., ET. The Biomedical Innovation Briefing, featuring authors from the new issue, is open to all stakeholders with advance registration at http://www.healthaffairs.org/events/2015_02_05_biomedical_innovation/.

For more information about ECRI Institute's work in Health Technology Forecasting, please contact [email protected], call (610) 825-6000, ext. 5440, or visit the website at www.ecri.org/htais.

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About ECRI Institute
ECRI Institute (www.ecri.org), a nonprofit organization, dedicates itself to bringing the discipline of applied scientific research to healthcare to discover which medical procedures, devices, drugs, and processes are best to enable improved patient care. As pioneers in this science for more than 45 years, ECRI Institute marries experience and independence with the objectivity of evidence-based research. Strict conflict-of-interest guidelines ensure objectivity. ECRI Institute is designated an Evidence-based Practice Center by the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. ECRI Institute PSO is listed as a federally certified Patient Safety Organization by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Find ECRI Institute on Facebook (www.facebook.com/ECRIInstitute) and on Twitter (www.twitter.com/ECRI_Institute).

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