Egan-Jones Examines Concentration Risk Across Middle East Sovereigns

NEW YORK, Aug. 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Egan-Jones released an analysis examining how narrow export routes, desalinated water, and imported food leave Gulf sovereigns dependent on a handful of physical assets, and why the concentration risk investors scrutinize at the fund and issuer level belongs in sovereign analysis.

Crude logistics illustrate the exposure. Iran's forced closure of the Strait of Hormuz has restricted roughly 20 percent of global crude and product supply, pushing Saudi barrels west to Yanbu, which handled 92 percent of Saudi seaborne crude exports in June. After the Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi-linked shipping on July 20, Bab el-Mandeb crossings fell 56 percent within a week and west-coast loadings stopped.

The alternatives carry their own history. Asia-bound cargoes now route north through Suez, adding about thirty days, on a waterway Egypt closed for eight years after 1967 and that a single grounded vessel blocked for six days in 2021. A pipeline north to the Mediterranean, Egan-Jones observes, would cross politically difficult territory and remain open to attack.

Water and food follow the same pattern. Desalination supplies between 70 and 99 percent of drinking water across the six GCC states, and the UAE holds reserves covering roughly two days of normal demand. Eleven Gulf energy and desalination sites were publicized as targets in March, and Bahrain has reported damage to a plant. The GCC imports about 85 percent of its food, more than 70 percent of it through Hormuz.

Population adds another layer. About 44 percent of Saudi Arabia's 35.3 million residents hold a foreign passport, a workforce Egan-Jones expects could move quickly in a crisis, thinning construction timelines and broader economic activity.

On the war itself, the firm judges steep escalation unlikely, on the view that a campaign destructive enough to shift the status quo would risk a global depression. Talks are underway, though Egan-Jones is skeptical of a durable near-term outcome.

Egan-Jones published the commentary as a framework for institutional investors and risk managers weighing exposure to the region: the discipline brought to a single counterparty or collateral type belongs equally in sovereign work, where one pipeline, one port, or one plant carries most of the load.

About Egan-Jones Ratings
Egan-Jones, an NRSRO founded in 1995, offers timely and accurate credit ratings and proxy services.

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SOURCE Egan-Jones Ratings Co.