Emerson College Poll: Clinton and Trump Keep It Close in Florida, Nevada and Arizona but Clinton Surges in Rhode Island. GOP Could Lock Up Three Senate Seats
BOSTON, Oct. 6, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Four new polls released today by Emerson College shows a tightening of the presidential race and for the first time, Hillary Clinton has taken a lead in Arizona by a margin of 44% to 42%. Donald Trump leads 45% to 44% in the battleground state of Florida the two are even in Nevada, at 43% each. In Rhode Island Clinton has opened up a 20-point advantage over Trump (52% to 32%).
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Figure 1: Presidential Ballot
| FL |
NV |
RI |
AZ |
|
| Clinton |
44% |
43% |
52% |
44% |
| Trump |
45% |
43% |
32% |
42% |
| Johnson |
4% |
9% |
5% |
9% |
| Stein |
3% |
4% |
5% |
1% |
| Unsure |
4% |
2% |
6% |
6% |
| n= |
600 |
700 |
600 |
600 |
| MOE* |
3.90% |
3.60% |
3.90% |
3.90% |
*Margin of error
Republicans are comfortably ahead in two of three U.S. Senate races and have a modest lead in the third. Marco Rubio, who is running for his old seat after losing the GOP presidential nominating contest to Trump, has an 8-point lead over Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy, 47% to 39%. In what was expected to be a tough race, Arizona Senator John McCain is up 16 points over his Democratic challenger, Ann Kirkpatrick, 52% to 36%. With the Senate Minority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid, retiring this year Republican Joe Heck holds a 4-point lead over Catherine Cortez Masto, 45% to 41%.
Figure 2: Sanders Voters − Candidate Preference by State
| Hillary Clinton |
Donald Trump |
Gary Johnson |
Jill Stein |
Unsure |
|
| FL |
62% |
18% |
2% |
17% |
1% |
| NV |
50% |
15% |
18% |
16% |
2% |
| RI |
67% |
10% |
6% |
11% |
6% |
| AZ |
78% |
7% |
11% |
3% |
2% |
Rhode Island and Arizona are the first states where Emerson polls suggest that Bernie Sanders primary voters may be coming around to the Clinton camp. In the September 7 Emerson survey, only 50% of Sanders voters said they planned to vote for Clinton. In the current poll that figure jumped to 67%, and almost 8 of every 10 Sanders Arizona voters (78%) now favor Clinton.
In two of the states, Independents favor Trump while the other two lean toward Clinton. He is up by 11 points in Nevada (47% to 36%) and 6 in Rhode Island (42% to 36%). She has a 1-point edge in Florida (40% to 39%) and a 5-point margin in Arizona (42% to 37%).
Three of the states polled have a sizable Hispanic population: Florida (19%), Nevada (22%) and Arizona (22%). Among Hispanic voters, Clinton has a solid lead over Trump in all three: 59% to 21% in Nevada, 54% to 40% in Arizona, and 59% to 36% in Florida. In Florida, the only state among the four polled that has an African American population greater than 10%, Clinton has an enormous lead, 77% to 18%.
CALLER ID
The Emerson College Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Rhode Island polls were conducted in English and Spanish from October 2-4, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample for Nevada consisted of 700 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6%; for Florida, Arizona, and Rhode Island the sample size of 600 had a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
Media contact:
Spencer Kimball
Email
6178243491
SOURCE Emerson College
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