Emerson College Poll: Markey Starts with 6 Point Advantage Over Gomez in U.S. Senate Race

BOSTON, May 2, 2013 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new survey of registered voters finds Congressman Ed Markey (D) with a 6 point lead over Republican candidate Gabriel Gomez 42 percent to 36 percent with 797 respondents. The Emerson College Polling Society (ECPS) survey is the first to look at the US Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State John Kerry since the Primary election. There was a 3.4 percent margin of error in the ECPS survey.

According to Felix Chen, President of ECPS, there is a post primary bounce for Gomez, and while the race is currently very close, it may only be a honeymoon period for the Republican who was a virtual unknown just a few months ago.

Both Markey and Gomez have high favorability ratings at 48% and 45%, but Markey also carries a high unfavorable rating of 37%, compared to Gomez who is at 25%.  According to Chen, the results suggest Markey may have a problem attacking Gomez, a situation similar to that faced by Scott Brown when he attacked Elizabeth Warren in the 2012 Election; Warren like Gomez had high favorability ratings.

The survey also suggests that Independents are breaking for Gomez at a nearly 2 to 1 rate (46% to 25%) which is typically the ratio that Republicans need to be successful in Statewide Elections here in the Bay state.

There appears to be a divide among voters by gender as well. Markey has 46% of the female vote to Gomez at 29% but Gomez captures 44% of the male vote to Markey at 37%.

Regional breakdowns show Markey with a strong base of support in the City of Boston with a 57% to 19% lead. The two candidates are tied in the Metro Boston corridor with 39% each.  In Western Mass, Markey holds a 43% to 24% lead while Gomez carries the North Central and North Shore areas 46% to 33%, but is currently losing the South Central and South Shore areas 40% to 38%. 

Chen expects a very competitive race as Gomez's Hispanic background will allow him the opportunity to be competitive in traditional Democratic strongholds that would normally go uncontested to Markey.

Despite the recent Boston Marathon Bombing, only 4% of voters view terrorism as the major issue.  Troubling for Markey, is that voters are identifying traditional Republican issues, Jobs (36%) and the Deficit (19%), as more important than Democratic issues, Healthcare (14%) and Education (14%).

The close dynamic of this race is in stark contrast to the Special 2010 Election where Republican Scott Brown trailed Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) 58% to 27% (Suffolk University Poll 11/8/2009). 

Data was collected on May 1, 2013, using an automated data collection system. The Massachusetts sample consisted of 797 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4% at a 95% confidence level.  The full survey and results are available at the groups' website.www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com.

About Emerson College Polling Society

Emerson College Polling Society is a student organization at Emerson College dedicated to formulating, administering, and analyzing public opinion polls.  The results and analysis of this release are the sole views of Emerson College Polling Society and do not reflect the views of Emerson College as a whole.

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SOURCE Emerson College Polling Society