Emerson College Polls: Clinton With Slim Leads in 4 of 5 Battleground States
GOP Holding Onto 3 Senate Seats and Winning NV while Democrats Look to Take WI.
BOSTON, Oct. 31, 2016 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- New Emerson College polls in five battleground states show a tightening presidential race, with Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in four states, by margins that range from 6 points (in Wisconsin, 48% to 42%) to 1 point (Florida, 46% to 45%). Ohio is a dead heat, with each candidate getting 45%. In North Carolina, Clinton's margin is 3 points (48% to 45%). In Nevada she has a 2-point edge (44% to 42%).
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| State of the Race |
||||||||
| October 29 Emerson Polls |
October 28 Emerson Polls* |
|||||||
| FL |
OH |
WI |
NC |
NV |
MI |
NH |
PA |
|
| Hillary |
46% |
45% |
48% |
48% |
44% |
50% |
46% |
48% |
| Donald |
45% |
45% |
42% |
45% |
42% |
43% |
43% |
43% |
| Gary |
4% |
6% |
9% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
6% |
6% |
| Jill Stein |
.3% |
1% |
.5% |
.1% |
3% |
2% |
.3% |
|
| Unsure |
6% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
10% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
| sample |
n=500 |
n=800 |
n=400 |
n=650 |
n=550 |
n=500 |
n=600 |
n=550 |
| MOE |
4.3% |
3.4% |
4.9% |
3.8% |
4.1% |
4.3% |
3.9% |
4.1% |
| *Full results from October 28 Emerson polls can be viewed at www.TheECPS.com. |
||||||||
In U.S. Senate races, the Republican candidate has a clear edge in two of five states that were polled (Nevada and North Carolina) and a commanding lead in a third (Ohio), where Rob Portman is far ahead of Ted Strickland, 49% to 35%. Democrat Russ Feingold holds a 5-point advantage over incumbent Senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. The Florida race between Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy has tightened, with Rubio leading by 2 points, 49% to 47%, within the poll's margin of error (MOE).
In Nevada's race to fill the seat of retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, the GOP's Joe Heck leads Catherine Cortez Masto, 48% to 44%; Heck also had a 4-point advantage in an Emerson poll conducted in early October. In North Carolina, Republican incumbent Richard Burr is outpacing Deborah Ross 48% to 44%, adding 2 points to the 2-point lead he held in a mid-October poll.
| US Senate Races |
||
| Ohio Rob Portman (R): 49% Ted Strickland (D): 35% Someone else: 4% Undecided: 12% |
Nevada Joe Heck (R): 48% Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 44% Someone else: 3% Undecided 6%
|
North Carolina Richard Burr (R): 48% Deborah Ross (D): 44% Someone Else: 3% Undecided 6% |
| Wisconsin Russ Feingold (D): 49% Ron Johnson (R): 44% Other: 4% Undecided 3% |
Florida Marco Rubio (R): 49% Patrick Murphy (D): 47% Other: 3% Undecided: 1% |
|
While, favorability numbers for Clinton (-16) and Trump (-18) are nearly identical in Florida, Clinton is viewed more favorably than him in the other four states, in some cases by significant margins. However, except in Wisconsin−where his deficit is 30 points larger than hers−this isn't translating into a clear lead with voters.
| Presidential Favorability |
|||||
| FL |
NC |
NV |
OH |
WI |
|
| Clinton |
-16 Fav: 41% Unfav: 57% |
-9 Fav: 45% Unfav: 54% |
-8 Fav: 46% Unfav: 54% |
-15 Fav: 41% Unfav: 56% |
-8 Fav: 44% Unfav: 52% |
| Trump |
-18 Fav: 40% Unfav: 58% |
-18 Fav: 40% Unfav: 58% |
-25 Fav: 35% Unfav: 60% |
-23 Fav: 37% Unfav: 60% |
-38 Fav: 29% Unfav: 67% |
CALLER ID
The Emerson College Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada polls were conducted October 26-27, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Wisconsin poll was conducted October 27-28. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. Nevada and North Carolina were also weighted by congressional district. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
Contact:
Spencer Kimball
617-824-8737
[email protected]
SOURCE Emerson College Polling Society
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