Existing Home Sales Will Continue To Increase In June As Market Gains Momentum, According To Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast
Auction.com Model Projects June Sales to Come in at 5.57 Million Units (SAAR), and Median Sales Price at $228,929
IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., June 22, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Auction.com, LLC, the nation's leading online real estate marketplace, has released its June Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast which projects that existing home sales for the month of June will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.4 and 5.74 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.57 million – up 4.1 percent from May and 11.2 percent from a year ago.
"Improvements in the labor market and to wage growth should continue to increase owner occupier demand and start to make up for the recent retreat of investors from the market," said Auction.com Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "Inventory has also increased, aiding sales flow as more first-time buyers enter the market just in time for the summer buying season."
Earlier today, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) released its existing home sales data for May, reporting that home sales were at 5.35 million units – a 5.1 percent increase from April's sales and up 9.2 percent from a year ago. These sharp increases were in line with Auction.com's May nowcast point estimate of 5.31 million (revised upward from 5.18 million) – a prediction that beat the consensus estimate of 5.25 million. The NAR also revised upward the unusually weak initial April report to 5.09 million from its original estimate of 5.01, indicating that Auction.com's nowcast for April was closer to target than it originally appeared.
Today NAR also reported a May increase in existing home prices to $228,700 – their highest level since April 2007. This was well within the range of $209,759 and $231,839 that Auction.com predicted last month and indicates a 4.2 percent increase compared to a year ago. Findings from the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $217,482 and $240,375 during the month of June, with a targeted price of $228,929. This represents a 3.1 percent year-over-year increase for the month.
"It certainly appears that the housing market is now on firmer ground, and Google search data and Auction.com data are both signaling further strengthening this month," said Auction.com Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "Housing turnover is increasing, prices are strengthening and additional sellers are tip-toeing into the market. As long as the labor market continues to gain steam and confidence is not derailed, housing sales and prices could settle into a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle."
About the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast Model
The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Auction.com's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
Auction.com will occasionally update its nowcast as fresh data provides additional signals for current home sales activity. The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast model has proven highly accurate over the course of 2014 and into 2015.
Existing Home Sales
| Month |
Reported Existing Home (in millions) |
Auction.com Point (SAR in millions) |
Auction.com Predicted (SAR in millions) |
| April 2014 |
4.75 |
4.78 |
4.62 – 4.94 |
| May 2014 |
4.90 |
4.81 |
4.65 – 4.97 |
| June 2014 |
5.01 |
5.05 |
4.94 – 5.17 |
| July 2014 |
5.07 |
5.11 |
4.99 – 5.22 |
| August 2014 |
5.00 |
5.19 |
5.09 – 5.30 |
| September 2014 |
5.10 |
5.08 |
4.91 – 5.24 |
| October 2014 |
5.16 |
5.13 |
4.96 – 5.30 |
| November 2014 |
4.95 |
5.16 |
4.99 – 5.33 |
| December 2014 |
5.07 |
5.03 |
4.85 – 5.21 |
| January 2015 |
4.82 |
5.01 |
4.83 – 5.19 |
| February 2015 |
4.89 |
5.03 |
4.87 – 5.19 |
| March 2015 |
5.21 |
5.06 |
4.90 - 5.22 |
| April 2015 |
5.09 |
5.33 |
5.16 – 5.50 |
| May 2015 |
5.35 |
5.31 |
5.14 – 5.48 |
| June 2015 |
TBD |
5.57 |
5.40 – 5.74 |
| Sources: Google, NAR, Auction.com |
Existing Home Sales Pricing
| Month |
Reported |
YoY % Change |
Auction.com |
YoY % Change |
Auction.com |
| April 2014 |
$201,500 |
5.1% |
$196,815 |
2.6% |
$186,974 - $206,656 |
| May 2014 |
$212,000 |
4.4% |
$202,179 |
-0.5% |
$192,070 - $212,287 |
| June 2014 |
$222,000 |
3.7% |
$211,753 |
-1.0% |
$201,166 - $222,341 |
| July 2014 |
$221,600 |
4.3% |
$219,381 |
3.3% |
$208,412 - $230,350 |
| August 2014 |
$218,400 |
4.1% |
$219,148 |
4.5% |
$208,190 - $230,105 |
| September 2014 |
$209,100 |
5.3% |
$214,433 |
8% |
$203,712 - $225,155 |
| October 2014 |
$207,500 |
5.1% |
$205,922 |
4.3% |
$195,626 - $216,218 |
| November 2014 |
$207,200 |
6% |
$204,204 |
4.5% |
$193,993 - $214,414 |
| December 2014 |
$208,200 |
5.3% |
$205,783 |
4.1% |
$195,493 - $216,072 |
| January 2015 |
$197,600 |
5.2% |
$205,126 |
9.2% |
$194,869 - $215,382 |
| February 2015 |
$201,900 |
7.2% |
$201,077 |
6.7% |
$191,023 - $211,131 |
| March 2015 |
$210,700 |
7.1% |
$204,165 |
3.8% |
$193,956 - $214,373 |
| April 2015 |
$219,400 |
8.9% |
$211,633 |
5% |
$201,052 - $222,215 |
| May 2015 |
$228,700 |
7.9% |
$220,799 |
4.2% |
$209,759 - $231,839 |
| June 2015 |
TBD |
TBD |
$228,929 |
3.1% |
$217,482 - $240,375 |
| Sources: Google, NAR, Auction.com |
About Auction.com:
Auction.com, LLC, is the nation's leading online real estate marketplace. Founded in 2007, the company has sold over $30 billion in residential and commercial real estate assets. Auction.com has over 900 employees and headquarters in Irvine and Silicon Valley, California as well as offices in Austin and Plano, Texas, Atlanta, Denver, New York and Miami. Visit www.auction.com for more information.
SOURCE Auction.com, LLC
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