Global Consumer Confidence Unchanged in Q4: Strong Gains Across East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf Were Offset by Cooling Optimism Elsewhere

NEW YORK, Jan. 20, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Global consumer confidence remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey. The Q4 survey—which was fielded before the Omicron variant's global surge—found confidence holding steady at a record high of 115 worldwide, but with considerable divergence across economies amid pandemic uncertainties and rising prices.   

"Although it held at an all-time high, rebounds in consumer confidence among several large economies—including China, Australia, and the Gulf—were offset in Q4 by flagging confidence in economies still suffering from high COVID-19 cases and worsening inflationary pressure," said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board.

"Despite rising prices and the prospect of new variants extending the pandemic well into the new year, Q4's findings remain consistent with our projection of 3.9% global growth in 2022—a full percentage point above the trend of 2011–19. Likewise, consumers' expectations that job prospects and their personal finances will be generally favorable twelve months forward is consistent with our projections for improved activity ahead."

Global Overview: Confidence across Regions in Q4 2021

The Global Consumer Confidence Index held steady at 115 in Q4 2021. (A figure above 100 is considered positive.)

• Confidence rose in 33 of 65 markets (51%) surveyed, as greater optimism among large economies in Asia counterbalanced dips in confidence elsewhere, especially in North America.
• Confidence advanced by a modest 2 points across Asia as a whole. This reflects cooling in countries that nevertheless remain at highly optimistic levels—including New Zealand (105 in Q4) and especially India (157), where confidence fell 12 pts but remains the highest in the world. Elsewhere in the region, China (131), Australia (107), and many of the ASEAN economies all saw substantial gains as effects of Q3's Delta surge subsided. Notably, a 9-pt gain in Japan (71) brought confidence to the highest level since the pandemic began, though still well below the global average.
• Confidence in Europe dipped slightly (–1 pt) overall. Sizeable retreats in confidence in Germany (103 in Q4), the UK (106), the Netherlands (119), Turkey (85), and parts of Eastern Europe just offset improved confidence across the rest of the region. Chip shortages that have hobbled the auto industry were likely a factor in Germany, while the UK faced new mobility restrictions in Q4 amid another COVID-19 surge.
• Latin America took a minor step forward (+1 pt) overall. A strong 10-pt rebound in Mexico (to 108 in Q4), alongside smaller gains in Colombia (108) and Costa Rica (96) just offset declines in key South American economies like Argentina (82), Brazil (98), and Chile (94)—where political uncertainty helped fuel a 6-pt decline.
• Confidence in Africa and the Middle East edged lower (–1 pt) overall. This reflected significant divergence across this vast region. While Egypt (95) and Pakistan (86) fell by 9 and 6 points respectively, high vaccination rates and renewed tourism fueled further gains in all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (127), which remains among the world's most confidence regions.
• North America (-12 pts) retreated sharply from the extremely high levels of Q3 2021. While it recorded the world's largest drop of 14 pts in Q4, the US (109) remains firmly in positive territory. Confidence in Canada (116) climbed further and surpassed its southern neighbor.

Drivers of Confidence: Prospects for Jobs, Finances, and Spending

Pandemic and price pressures continued to weigh on global consumers in Q4, even as the Delta wave receded across many economies. While not fully captured in this survey, the discovery of Omicron has likely strengthened the headwinds already felt in many key economies.   

• Inflation ranked among consumers' top-5 concerns six months hence. Rising costs for necessities like food, energy, and shelter—as well as discretionary items like cars and vacations—appeared to dampen overall confidence and spending in many economies.
• Concerns about health, the economy, and job security still loomed large in Q4, but edged down in intensity. Worldwide, 57% of consumers continued to believe their economy was in a recession, down from 61% in Q3. However, slightly more consumers in Q4 believed their economy would remain in recession in 12 months—another warning sign for consumption growth ahead
• Current spending plans fell in Q4 across all regions except Asia, reflecting the pressure of rising prices. Indeed, many central banks continued or began tightening monetary policy to battle inflation, which may prove an additional drag on spending.
• Expectations for future job prospects and personal finances advanced globally, but with significant divergence by region. Optimism about finances climbed in Asia, and Latin America, but fell somewhat in Europe and Africa & the Middle East. Sentiment declined materially in North America, with inflation again a likely driver. Expectations for jobs improved in all regions besides North America, which recorded a slight downtick from the strong optimism of Q3.

About The Conference Board
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SOURCE The Conference Board