Global Times: China's economy maintains rebound momentum in November

BEIJING, Dec. 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- In November, China's economy maintained the rebound momentum that began in September thanks to a raft of macroeconomic policies. Multiple indexes point to a number of highlights, including a robust growth pace in the industry and service sectors, rising social expectations and the stable development of new quality productive forces - though individual indicators such as retail sales showed signs of slowing down, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday.

Above figure serves as a barometer gauging the fourth quarter and whole-year operation of the world's second-largest economy, with Chinese officials expressing confidence that it is on a trajectory to achieving the annual social and economic development targets.

The data was also the first of its kind on the national economy following last week's annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). As Chinese leaders decided on priorities for the economic work in 2025 during the tone-setting conference, the November reading - which underscored both positive changes and downward pressure on the economy - would also provide fresh insights into how Chinese policymakers will adjust next year's policy strength "dynamically and flexibly," so as to address any incoming headwinds next year, according to analysts.

In November, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 5.4 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than a month earlier, NBS data showed, beating the market expectation of 5.3-percent growth.

Regarding two other important indicators, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0 percent year-on-year, according to NBS data, slowing down from the 4.8-percent growth recorded in October. In the first 11 months, fixed-asset investment was up 3.3 percent year-on-year, NBS data showed, compared to a 3.4-percent figure in the first 10 months.

Positive changes

"Although the growth rate of individual indicators slowed down in November due to short-term factors, major economic indicators of the fourth quarter were significantly better than those in the third quarter, and the momentum of economic recovery has not changed," NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at a press briefing of the State Council Information Office on Monday.

Fu stressed that the Chinese economy performed well in the first quarter, but pressures increased in the second and third quarters. Taking note of the complex situation, a package of incremental policies was swiftly carried out following the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee on September 26. As a result, major economic indicators have shown significant improvement since the fourth quarter, social confidence has been effectively boosted, and positive changes have notably increased.

In terms of the November figure, Chinese economists took particular note of the pick-up in industrial output, which they said remains the "bright spot" of the Chinese economy throughout the year.

"External demand maintained resilience in November, which serves as support for the industrial output and investment in the manufacturing sector," Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, told the Global Times on Monday.

In November, the steady development of new quality productive forces continued to instill new impetus into the economy. NBS data showed that the added value of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry grew by over 20 percent year-on-year in November, while that of the production of new-energy vehicles increased by more than 50 percent the same month.

Measurements on market expectation and confidence also show signs of continued improvement as more macro policies bear fruit.

For example, the sales area and value of newly built commercial housing both achieved positive growth in November, NBS data showed. The Chinese stock market also witnessed more active trading in November, with the combined transaction volume and value in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both jumping by approximately 1.1 times year-on-year. These positive changes are "conducive to expanding consumption and investment, which in turn drives economic recovery," Fu said.

Investment in the manufacturing sector also gained pace in the January-November period. In the first 11 months, the reading expanded 9.3 percent year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the average 3.3 percent growth, NBS data showed.

Regarding consumption, analysts said that the front-load effect of the Double 11 Shopping festival dragged on consumer spending in November, as this year's pre-sales started 10 days earlier than last year's.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, predicted that China's retail sales will return to a growth rate of 4.5 percent in December and 3.5 percent for the whole year, as the slowdown in urban residents' disposable income and adjustment in the real estate market weigh on consumer confidence.

Although downward pressures persist, Fu said that judging from the year's situation, the main goals of economic and social development are expected to be successfully achieved.

In addition to the freshly released economic reading, the just-concluded CEWC has further rallied great confidence in the prospects of the Chinese economy among officials and entrepreneurs.

Based on the current economic performance, annual economic growth is expected to be around 5 percent this year, and China remains an important engine of global economic growth, an official with the Office of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs told the Xinhua News Agency in an interview published on Monday.

Policy priorities next year

Next year, global uncertainties and complexities could rise, and China is still in a period of economic adjustment and transformation, which calls for sustained efforts to "expand domestic demand, promote employment and income growth for residents, and address potential risks and hidden dangers," Fu said at the press briefing.

On top of the complex global situation, the set of November figures also exposed structural issues in the Chinese economy, such as an imbalance between the supply and demand sides, Tian Yun, a veteran economist based in Beijing, told the Global Times on Monday. Tian said that addressing insufficient domestic demand will remain a major policy focus next year.

During the Xinhua interview, the official with the Office of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs stressed that "boosting consumption is the top priority" for expanding domestic demand. The official highlighted various ways to enhance Chinese residents' consumption capacity and adapt to changes in consumption structure.

While outlining a number of key tasks for 2025, the CEWC also called for efforts to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand on all fronts.

Li Changan, a professor at the Academy of China Open Economy Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times on Monday that China's consumer market continues to see favorable conditions and there is vast market potential to be unleashed.

"As trade-in policies and a package of incremental policies continue to yield effects, consumer spending in bulk commodities such as cars and home appliances has shown relatively rapid growth. Efforts are needed to strengthen the upward momentum and build new consumption drivers," Li said.

The CEWC sent a clear signal of more proactive macro-policies, which will help consolidate economic development confidence, stabilize social expectations and ensure that the goals and tasks in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) are reached with high quality and a solid foundation for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) is laid, according to Li.

"Though a specific policy plan will be unveiled at the national two sessions in 2025, it is important that Chinese policymakers in various departments dynamically and flexibly adjust detailed measures in the next few months to ensure a smooth transition between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods and a good opening next year," Tian added.

SOURCE Global Times