Heartland Monitor: Economic Uncertainty and Political Indecision Define Current American Psyche

MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 6, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- While more than two-thirds of Americans believe the state of the U.S. economy has more to do with factors beyond the president's control, Americans are evenly split as to whether the country would have been better off had someone else won the White House in 2008, according to new poll results announced today by The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) and National Journal.

Newly released figures from the quarterly Allstate-National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll show that 36% of Americans believe they are worse off than they were four years ago, while about 40% are "about the same." A further 23% say they are better off than four years ago.

The latest update to the Heartland Monitor series will take place on Saturday, January 7 during "The Economy and the Electorate" briefing (www.nh2012heartlandmonitor.eventbrite.com) at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire. Senator Rick Santorum, Republican presidential candidate; Joel Benenson, lead pollster for President Obama's re-election campaign; Mike Murphy, Republican strategist; and other political insiders will participate in a series of panel discussions and interviews exploring how economic issues will impact the upcoming election. Central to the discussion will be findings from more than three years of quarterly Allstate-National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls, which analyze more than 12,000 interviews to provide insights on Americans' economic concerns, expectations and social mobility. The results are part of a cumulative analysis of all 11 polls that offers a panoramic look at American economic and political attitudes as the election year commences.

"After three years of research, we have learned that the recession and ongoing economic uncertainty, combined with partisan politics and brinkmanship, have created a highly divided and frustrated electorate," said Joan Walker, Allstate executive vice president. "However, it's also clear that common values still bind Americans to one another. Broad agreement on the American Dream of homeownership, education and financial stability – as well as hopefulness for ourselves and our children – have been the hallmarks of the Heartland Monitor series of polls. Despite partisan politics, these values also are at the core of our political and social dialogue."  

In the most recent poll, 69% of survey respondents do not hold the president responsible for the country's economic situation because they consider the weak economy to be the result of factors behind his control. Likewise, the poll does not show an overwhelming anti-Obama impulse, as 41% of poll respondents say they are "better off" because Obama won, and a further 41% say they are "worse off" due to his electoral victory.

"With more than 12,000 cumulative interviews, these surveys paint a portrait of a nation struggling to maintain faith in old beliefs about opportunity, self-sufficiency, and the rewards of hard work," said Ronald Brownstein, editorial director of National Journal Group. "An uneasy mix of anxiety and determination infuses all 11 surveys, revealing a nagging fear that the economy's new dynamics expose average Americans to far more financial insecurity than earlier generations."

Since its launch in April 2009, the Heartland Monitor Poll has consistently demonstrated that Americans are convinced their individual economic fates hinge on their own efforts, rather than the actions of government or industry. This finding adds credence to another key conclusion of the Heartland Monitor Poll: Americans remain skeptical of large institutions – ranging from big banks to Congress – and they are divided along partisan, ideological and racial lines over Washington's proper role in their lives.   

Over time, the quarterly Allstate-National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll has reported the following data about Americans' current political and economic mood:

• 60% of those polled in the most recent Heartland Monitor say they are living the American Dream, consistent with the 59% who gave the same response in March 2011 and a testament to Americans' resilience and confidence.
• In April 2010, 70% of respondents said they thought the economy would improve in the next 12 months, compared with just 56% who expected improvement in December 2011, evidence of a worsening of Americans' economic mood.
• 70% of respondents to the most recent Heartland Monitor Poll say the country is off on the wrong track, compared to 42% in April 2009, highlighting a significant rise in pessimism about politics as usual.
• In the most recent Heartland Monitor Poll, 49% of respondents disapprove of the president's performance, compared with 28% in April 2009.
• If the election were held today, 39% of poll respondents who are registered to vote would re-elect President Obama, a figure identical to the percentage in January 2010. On the other end of the spectrum, 54% would not re-elect the president, only slightly more than the 50% recorded in January 2010.

To register for the Manchester event, please visit NH2012HeartlandMonitor.eventbrite.com.

EVENT DETAILS

DATE/TIME:
Saturday, January 7
Registration – 9:30 a.m.
Program – 10 a.m. to noon

LOCATION:
New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College
100 St. Anselm Drive
Manchester, NH 03102

Notes to Editors

Survey Methodology

The most recent poll was a nationally representative survey of American adults conducted November 30 – December 4, 2011, among N=1,200 American adults age 18+. The sample includes oversampling of 200 adults age 50+, with the data weighted to reflect age distribution of adult population. Respondents were reached via landline and cell phone. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.83%.

Since April 2009, the Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls have explored American attitudes on the changing economy. The 11 polls, conducted by Ed Reilly, Brent McGoldrick and Jeremy Ruch of FTI Strategic Communications, a communications-strategy consulting firm, have surveyed between 1,000 and 1,200 adults each time, with a margin of error ranging between 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points. To provide more detailed data, several surveys have oversampled specific populations such as young people, retirees and racial minorities.

About Allstate

The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) is the nation's largest publicly held personal lines insurer known for its "You're In Good Hands With Allstate^®" slogan. Now celebrating its 80th anniversary as an insurer, Allstate is reinventing protection and retirement to help nearly 16 million households insure what they have today and better prepare for tomorrow. Consumers access Allstate insurance products (auto, home, life and retirement) and services through Allstate agencies, independent agencies, and Allstate exclusive financial representatives in the U.S. and Canada, as well as via www.allstate.com and 1-800 Allstate®. For an overview of the other Allstate-National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls, visit http://www.allstate.com/heartland-monitor. Additional information is available at www.storiesfromtheheartland.com.

About National Journal Group

National Journal is Washington's premier source for 360-degree insight on politics and policy. With up-to-the-minute breaking news and analysis at NationalJournal.com, the essential intelligence of National Journal Daily, the knowledge and depth of National Journal magazine, and the comprehensive campaign coverage of National Journal Hotline, National Journal delivers everything you need to know to stay ahead of the curve in Washington.

About the Strategic Communications Practice of FTI Consulting

The Strategic Communications practice of FTI Consulting, formerly known as FD, is one of the world's most highly regarded communications consultancies. With more than 20 years of experience advising management teams in critical situations, the Strategic Communications practice supports clients in protecting and enhancing their reputation in the capital markets, society and the political environment. Services of the Strategic Communications practice are financial communications, corporate communications and public affairs, with specialty offerings that include strategy consulting, research, creative engagement, crisis and issues management, and change communications. The Strategic Communications practice of FTI Consulting is an established market leader in M&A communications and has been for many years.

About FTI Consulting

FTI Consulting, Inc. is a global business advisory firm dedicated to helping organizations protect and enhance enterprise value in an increasingly complex legal, regulatory and economic environment. With more than 3,700 employees located in 22 countries, FTI Consulting professionals work closely with clients to anticipate, illuminate and overcome complex business challenges in areas such as investigations, litigation, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory issues, reputation management and restructuring. The company generated $1.4 billion in revenues during fiscal year 2010. More information can be found at www.fticonsulting.com.

SOURCE The Allstate Corporation