Holiday Headwinds: Triple Whale Forecasts Smaller Baskets, Rising Ad Costs, and a Retention-First Playbook for BFCM 2025

COLUMBUS, Ohio, Aug. 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Triple Whale, the agent-powered intelligence platform used by more than 45,000 ecommerce and retail brands, today released its 2025 Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) forecast, revealing a fundamental reset in how brands will win the holidays.

Drawing on $55 billion in annual transaction data, the report shows shoppers are paring back ahead of peak season, signaling smaller baskets and more selective, deal-sensitive buying across discretionary categories. At the same time, ad costs are rising, return on paid media is slipping, and once-reliable channels are producing uneven results. The result: acquisition is harder and pricier, prompting brands to prioritize lifetime value and retention over "growth at any cost."

"In this market, the old BFCM playbook is dead," said Maxx Blank, co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Triple Whale. "You can't count on a last-minute holiday campaign to make your year. The brands that will win BFCM 2025 are the ones that start early, lean into loyalty, and allocate spend where efficiency still exists."

BFCM 2025 by the numbers:

• Projected total ad spend: $400–$450M (+28–35% YoY)
• Higher CPAs and CPMs during peak weeks
• New customer revenue likely dips as brands prioritize monetizing existing buyers over expensive net-new acquisition.
• The shift from ~57% to ~52% new-customer revenue isn't a blip; it's a structural reset that will shape 2026 planning.

Platform performance H1 2025:

• Meta: Still dominant but brands aren't getting as much of a return on their ad spend
• Google: Showing increases in spend, clicks, and impressions alongside declining efficiency.
• TikTok: Only platform showing improved efficiency (+5.90% ROAS, -8.78% CPM)

Triple Whale's full report outlines six imperatives for peak season success, including diversifying the media mix, optimizing for lifetime value over short-term ROAS, and leveraging first-party data for precision targeting.

Download the full The Ultimate BFCM 2025 Prep Guide for Ecommerce Brands at triplewhale.com.

About Triple Whale
Triple Whale is the agent-powered intelligence platform built for faster, more confident decisions across your entire brand. With AI agents that sit atop a fully-managed data warehouse, the Triple Pixel's proprietary identity resolution technology, and tools for acquisition, conversion, retention, and operations, Triple Whale turns complex data into clear, actionable guidance for profitable growth.

More than 45,000 innovative brands, including OUAI, Pressed Juicery, and True Classic, trust Triple Whale to scale with confidence.

To learn more, visit triplewhale.com.

SOURCE Triple Whale