Home Prices Continue to Increase in November According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

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Jan 26, 2016, 09:35 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 26, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.3% annual increase in November 2015 versus a 5.1% increase in October 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 5.3% in the year to November compared to 5.0% previously. The 20-City Composite's year-over-year gain was 5.8% versus 5.5% reported in October.

Portland, San Francisco and Denver continue to report the highest year over year gains among the 20 cities with another month of double digit annual price increases. Portland led the way with an 11.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with 11.0% and Denver with a 10.9% increase. Fourteen cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2015 versus the year ending October 2015. Phoenix had the longest streak of year-over-year increases, reporting a gain of 5.9% in November 2015, and the twelfth consecutive increase in annual price gains. Detroit posted a 6.3% year-over-year price, up from 5.1%, the largest annual increase this month.

Month-over-Month
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.1% month-over-month in November. The 10-City Composite was unchanged and the 20-City Composite reported gains of 0.1% month-over-month in November. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index, along with the 10-City and 20-City Composites, all increased 0.9% month-over-month in November. Fourteen of 20 cities reported increases in November before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities increased for the month.

Analysis
"Home prices extended their gains, supported by continued low mortgage rates, tight supplies and an improving labor market," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Sales of existing homes were up 6.5% in 2015 vs. 2014, and the number of homes on the market averaged about a 4.8 months' supply during the year; both numbers suggest a seller's market. The consumer portion of the economy is doing well; like housing, automobile sales were quite strong last year. Other parts of the economy are not faring as well. Businesses in the oil and energy sectors are suffering from the 75% drop in oil prices in the last 18 months. Moreover, the strong U.S. dollar is slowing exports. Housing is not large enough to offset all of these weak spots.

"Home prices continue to recover from the collapse that began before the recession of 2007-2009 and continued until 2012. Three cities – Dallas, Denver and Portland OR – have reached new all-time highs; San Francisco is even with its earlier peak and Charlotte NC is less than one percent below its previous peak. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is about 4.8% below the peak it set in July 2006, and 29.2% above the bottom it touched in January 2012. By comparison, the S&P 500 as of Friday, January 22^nd is up 46% from January 2012 – better than the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price series and about the same as Los Angeles.

Table 1 below summarizes the results for November 2015. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

	November 2015	November/October	October/September	1-Year
Metropolitan Area	Level	Change (%)	Change (%)	Change (%)
Atlanta	125.69	-0.3%	-0.2%	5.7%
Boston	183.58	-0.5%	0.0%	4.7%
Charlotte	135.07	0.3%	0.3%	5.3%
Chicago	130.43	-0.7%	-0.8%	2.0%
Cleveland	108.74	0.0%	-0.6%	2.2%
Dallas	156.15	0.2%	0.4%	9.4%
Denver	174.43	0.1%	0.4%	10.9%
Detroit	103.40	0.1%	-0.3%	6.3%
Las Vegas	144.76	-0.1%	0.0%	5.2%
Los Angeles	239.83	0.3%	0.1%	6.2%
Miami	206.68	0.8%	0.6%	8.1%
Minneapolis	147.72	0.1%	-0.1%	4.8%
New York	181.19	-0.3%	-0.1%	3.7%
Phoenix	156.47	0.3%	0.5%	5.9%
Portland	189.47	0.3%	0.5%	11.1%
San Diego	216.30	0.3%	-0.3%	6.0%
San Francisco	218.40	0.3%	0.6%	11.0%
Seattle	186.06	0.5%	0.5%	9.7%
Tampa	174.95	0.5%	0.6%	6.0%
Washington	211.60	0.1%	-0.3%	2.1%
Composite-10	197.54	0.0%	0.0%	5.3%
Composite-20	182.86	0.1%	0.1%	5.8%
U.S. National	175.71	0.1%	0.1%	5.3%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2015

Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

	November/October Change (%)		October/September Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Atlanta	-0.3%	1.0%	-0.2%	1.2%
Boston	-0.5%	0.4%	0.0%	1.1%
Charlotte	0.3%	1.4%	0.3%	0.8%
Chicago	-0.7%	1.1%	-0.8%	0.7%
Cleveland	0.0%	0.5%	-0.6%	0.4%
Dallas	0.2%	1.0%	0.4%	1.2%
Denver	0.1%	0.9%	0.4%	1.1%
Detroit	0.1%	1.3%	-0.3%	0.2%
Las Vegas	-0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%
Los Angeles	0.3%	0.9%	0.1%	0.5%
Miami	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%	1.2%
Minneapolis	0.1%	0.9%	-0.1%	0.6%
New York	-0.3%	0.8%	-0.1%	0.6%
Phoenix	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%
Portland	0.3%	1.2%	0.5%	1.1%
San Diego	0.3%	0.7%	-0.3%	0.2%
San Francisco	0.3%	1.2%	0.6%	1.4%
Seattle	0.5%	1.2%	0.5%	1.3%
Tampa	0.5%	1.1%	0.6%	1.3%
Washington	0.1%	0.9%	-0.3%	0.6%
Composite-10	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.7%
Composite-20	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.8%
U.S. National	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.9%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2015

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.

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